The Best Players to Stash in Fantasy Football From the NFC South

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Player

Austin Seferian-Jenkins was an enigma in college. He was a great talent at the tight end position for Washington, but off-field issues and injuries consistently held him back from becoming a truly dominant weapon.

As a true sophomore he had a career-high 69 receptions for 852 yards and 7 touchdowns in just 13 games. His combination of size, speed and leaping ability was difficult for defenses to match up with, but a DUI arrest, subsequent suspension, and injuries to his foot and finger hindered him from building on that as a junior.

A stress fracture in his foot prevented him from working out at the NFL Combine or his school's Pro Day, but reports had him running a 4.56-second 40-yard dash at 6'5" and 240 pounds while working out for the New York Jets. That puts him (athletically) with some great company.

He may never be as productive as the players in that group, but at the very least, he possess a comparable athletic profile as some of the best to play the position in the last decade. His college basketball background also lends credibility to the notion that he could be a great red zone threat in Tampa Bay.

While his suspension, poor quarterback play, and injury hampered his production and caused his stock to drop his final year at Washington, the Buccaneers still thought enough of him to select him 38th overall. Despite the great potential, he is currently been selected 186th overall and the 21st player at probably the weakest position in fantasy football.

In case "beat reporter" hype is your thing, sources close to the team have labeled him as "uncoverable" during OTA's and minicamp and have said he looks faster and stronger than he did his rookie year. That's nice to hear.

The Opportunity

It's not all roses for Austin Seferian-Jenkins in 2015 though. In terms of our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which quantifies a player's production relative to league expectation level based on historical performance, he ranked as one of the worst tight ends in the league. His Reception NEP per target of 0.34. Among the 44 tight ends who saw at least 30 targets last year (Seferian-Jenkins saw 38), that mark ranked 41st.

Only Brandon Myers and Vernon Davis were worse among tight ends with more than 30 targets, both securing a mark of 0.32.

Efficient tight end play from a rookie is practically unheard of though, and to add to that, injuries and poor quarterback made efficiency harder. Seferian-Jenkins also missed five games on the season before landing on injured reserve.

Conversely, he ranked second in the NFL (behind only Travis Kelce) in Reception Success Rate Percentage at an astounding 95.24%, which is a percentage measured by the number of receptions that contribute positively towards a player’s NEP. So while his rookie season wasn't a success by most accounts, there were definitely glimpses of his immense potential.

Additional, the tight end position was seemingly ignored last year by overwhelmed offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, with only 50 total receptions for Buccaneer tight ends in 2014. In fact, Tampa Bay hasn't had a tight end exceed 55 catches since Kellen Winslow Jr. had 75 in 2011.

Of course, the mediocre passing game in Tampa Bay during that span is a major reason for the lack of production, with the team ranking 31st in Adjusted Passing NEP per play in 2014 at -0.08. For context, Green Bay paced the league at 0.29. The Buccaneers didn't fare much better in 2013, finishing 27th in the league at -0.07.

But talent at the tight end position was also a major issue, and one that looks to be resolved with the drafting of Seferian-Jenkins. He also now plays in a tight end friendly system, with new offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter overseeing career years for Marcedes Lewis in Jacksonville and targeting Tony Gonzalez more than 115 times per season while in Atlanta. Heck, fewer tight ends were worse in every single one of our NEP metrics than Levine Toilolo in 2014 (his Reception NEP per target was just 0.36), and Koetter still found a way to target him an absurd 53 times!

Seferian-Jenkins also will be targeted by a likely upgrade at quarterback in first overall pick Jameis Winston, a guy who was fond of throwing to his tight ends in college. At Florida State he targeted his tight end Nick O'Leary a nation-high 73 times in 2014, and we shouldn't be surprised to see the position as a focal point in the Tampa offense.

As a late-draft flier, Seferian-Jenkins has the ability and opportunity to become a top-10 tight end as early as next season. He is well worth rostering in most formats, especially in deeper leagues and dynasty leagues.