NFL

The Best Players to Stash in Fantasy Football From the NFC West

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Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks

The Player

Thomas Rawls started his career at the University of Michigan, where he struggled to find the field due to academic issues and a crowded backfield. He transferred to Central Michigan where he finished Second Team All-MAC and led his team in rushing with 1,103 yards and 10 touchdowns despite starting just nine games.

As a runner, he demonstrated consistent power and enough burst to challenge defenses between the tackles and down the sideline. He loves to find the cutback run and looks impressive when he finds it. His 5'9", 215-pound frame allows him to explode through defenders, and he looks to possess the balance to bounce off arm tackles. He is patient when pressing the line of scrimmage, allowing his blocks to develop before accelerating through the hole to the second level.

While he won't beat many defensive backs in a footrace, his 4.5 40-yard-dash and film indicate he has enough juice to eat of yards once he breaks past the first level of the defense. His 35.5-inch vertical also demonstrate his explosiveness when he plants his foot and goes, and he has already been impressing his coaches with his bruising style and quickness.

His athletic profile yields some interesting comparables, including the player he will be looking to replace down the line.

NameHghtWght40 ydBnchVertBroad
Bernard Pierce6' 0"2184.491736"123"
DeAngelo Williams5' 9"2144.492535½" 
Thomas Rawls5' 9"2154.51535½"116"
Tashard Choice5' 11"2154.482034"119"
Marshawn Lynch5' 11"2154.462035½"125"
Knowshon Moreno5' 11"2174.52535½"115"
Julius Jones5' 10"2144.47 37½"121"

His closest comparison is probably a more rugged DeAngelo Williams, a player who has had tremendous success in the NFL for the Carolina Panthers. He will need to improve his ability in pass protection (what young player doesn't), but his effectiveness as a receiver will also be an asset in the NFL.

Yet while athletic ability is there, Rawls went undrafted for a reason. Most teams likely had him off of their draft boards due to multiple arrests for theft and larceny, including a guilty plea that led to suspensions, probation and community service.

The Opportunity

There might not be a more effective running team in the NFL right now than the Seattle Seahawks. In terms of our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which quantifies a player or team's production relative to league expectation level based on historical performance, Seattle led the NFL in Rushing NEP per play at 0.18 in 2014. Powerhouse rushing teams like the Cowboys and the Chiefs finished at 0.03 and 0.04 respectively.

While much of that can be attributed to the ability of Russell Wilson, his speed and effectiveness as a runner clearly opens things up for whoever lines up under center. Marshawn Lynch ranked third in the NFL in Rushing NEP per play (0.10) for players with over 150 carries, and sparingly used backup Christine Michael actually bested that number (0.12) on his 34 rushes.

While the Seattle Seahawks may appear to have a crowded and insurmountable depth chart at running back, a second glance reveals that things are much more tenuous than they seem.

While fantasy Twitter loves Christine Michael (and I am no exception), coaches just don't feel the same way. Despite possessing an unbelievable skill set, Michael is seemingly always in the doghouse, which attributed to his limited carries in college and now in the NFL. Offseason rumors have him firmly on the roster bubble, and with Rawls impressing Pete Carroll and the Seahawks brass, it wouldn't surprise anyone if Michael never got his opportunity in Seattle, despite an impressive NEP score on his limited workload.

Reliable and boring backup Robert Turbin is an effective third down player, but offseason hip surgery gave Rawls the opportunity to impress coaches during OTAs and minicamp. Turbin is a modest talent who has value as a pass blocker and catcher, but he isn't a player who a team wants to rely on as their bell cow. His Rushing NEP per carry of -0.04 was not promising. His readiness for week one is also in doubt as he recovers from an injury that can really hinder a back's effectiveness. Just ask Ray Rice.

And then there's the starter and foundation of the offense, Marshawn Lynch. His up-and-down relationship with the Seahawks has been the source of constant speculation for the past two years, including a retirement "scare" this past offseason. The 29-year-old Lynch is still incredibly effective on the field, especially when given the ball at the goal line at the end of a Super Bowl, but his unique and unpredictable personality seem to have worn out his relationship with management. While his contract was extended just a few months ago, the guaranteed portion is only for the 2015 season, with the deal essentially a year-to-year team option moving forward.

While it would take an injury or off-the-field incident to allow Rawls to see this field this upcoming season, dynasty owners should have the running back firmly on their watch list. He will be undrafted in redraft leagues, but if the NFL has taught us anything the last year, it's that we never know how a depth chart will shake out by season's end.

And in fantasy football, the "better late than never" mantra simply isn't true.