8 Big-Name Players You Just Can't Trust in Week 6

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

"Tommy Boy" was featured in this column leading up to Week 2 this season, but since we recommended you sit him then, things have remained no less than awful for this former superstar. Yet, as of this column's publishing, more owners on ESPN are starting Tom Brady this week (32.3%) than Jay Cutler (30.9%), Ben Roethlisberger (29.0%), and Tony Romo (28.0%).

Really?

Alright, let's do this again: Tom Brady, among quarterbacks who have dropped back to pass at least 100 times this year, ranks 26th out of 30 in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP). Tom Brady currently ranks 26th out of 30 in this metric on a per drop back basis. Tom Brady ranks 26th out of 30 in Passing Success Rate (the percentage of passes that contribute positive NEP). Tom Brady ranks 25th out of 30 of these quarterbacks in Total NEP. He has been a terrible quarterback this year. We called this decline in the preseason (another article on it here), but nobody thought it would be this steep.

The fact of the matter is, it's been that steep and we shouldn't expect any different until it's proven. Last week's explosion against Cincinnati is factored into our numbers, after all, and Brady still sits in the bottom third of NFL starters. He faces a Buffalo Bills' defense this week that - despite suffering some attrition in the front seven - has managed a top-three ranking in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP. Spurred on by former Lions head coach, now Bills defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, this is a dangerous pass rush with an underrated secondary that should make a feast out of the flailing Patriots' offense.