Blind Résumés: Using Math to Compare Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
Here at numberFire, we base most of what we do in regards to the NFL on our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. Even our fantasy football projections and advice come from this all-encompassing metric for players.
But NEP is ultimately a "real football" statistic, and requires context and logic to be useful in fantasy football. Unless you're in a "point per NEP" league (and if you are, contact me), you need more than just a measure of a player's efficiency and production to make fantasy football decisions.
But production and efficiency are two elements of a good football player, and good football players often see the field more often than bad ones (in most cases...). Being on the field more often leads to opportunity and reliability week-to-week, two other key elements of fantasy football success.
With that in mind, let's take a look at some blind resumes and consider if any players should be valued differently based on their statistical profile when considering their situation as a whole. All of the data in the tables in this article are based on 2013 performance.
We'll begin with the quarterbacks.