6 NFL FanDuel Value Plays for the Conference Championships
Jared Goff, QB, Los Angeles Rams
Jared Goff fell flat for fantasy purposes last week, but that's the risk you're taking in going with a value quarterback on a short slate. You weren't playing Goff for his high floor but because of the discounted upside he offered. And this week is no different.
With both of this week's games projected to be close, the Los Angeles Rams only have the third-best implied total, but that's still a solid mark of 26.5, and isn't all that far off from the two teams above them (28.75 and 30.0).
While chasing quarterback volume in heavy underdogs doesn't generally work well, thanks to a drop in efficiency, as only 3.5-point underdogs the Rams aren't exactly likely to get overwhelmed here. And if we look at games that have been close in the regular season, with margins of victory between -5 and 5, Goff has averaged 21.5 FanDuel points per game, topping 25.0 in two of the five.
The New Orleans Saints aren't a scary matchup either, having finished the regular season ranked 18th in numberFire's Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play while allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing passers.
You're always going to get a pretty low floor with Goff, as even in a good game he's liable to have his scoring opportunities snatched up by Todd Gurley (and now, apparently, C.J. Anderson), but his upside doesn't trail the rest of the week's passers by nearly as much as his salary does.