Fantasy Football: 3 Bold Predictions for Week 17
George Kittle: Record Breaker
George Kittle was inches (well, yards) from breaking the single-game receiving yards record for tight ends back in Week 14, and that incredible performance has put him within reach of yet another record for tight ends: the most receiving yards in a single season. Kittle currently has 1,228 receiving yards -- just 99 shy of Rob Gronkowski's record of 1,327. In Week 17, he's going to smash that record by putting up over 100 yards against the Los Angeles Rams.
It's frankly incredible what Kittle has been able to accomplish, especially considering that he's played a significant part of the season with the team's third-string quarterback Nick Mullens. Of course, it helps that Mullens has far exceeded everyone's expectations for an undrafted third-stringer; he's averaged an impressive 8.28 yards per attempt since taking over as the starter.
Kittle has been Mullens' primary receiver this year, drawing 25 percent of the San Francisco 49ers' targets over the course of the season. His workload will be all but guaranteed as he chases the record -- one of the few things the 49ers have left to play for this season -- as Dante Pettis is out with an MCL injury and Marquise Goodwin hasn't practiced yet this week. Kendrick Bourne is another player outperforming expectations this year, but he's not a serious threat to steal targets from Kittle.
The 49ers are likely to be down for most of their Week 17 game, even against a Rams squad that could rest some key players. And in losing situations, Mullens airs it out. He has three games with 38 or more passing attempts this season, which means Kittle should have the necessary volume to break that record.
Not that he actually needs significant volume to make an impact. No player in the league generates more yards after the catch over expectation than Kittle, who -- according to NFL's Next Gen Stats -- averages 3.3 yards over expectation per reception. Only McCaffrey has more total yards after the catch than Kittle.
It should help that the Rams allow about two more yards after the catch than the average NFL team on receptions between 5 and 10 yards down the field -- exactly where Kittle and his 7.2 average depth of target thrive.
The 49ers don't have much left to play for this season, but their goal in this game should be clear: get Kittle the all-time single-season receiving yardage record for tight ends. Things are lining up perfectly for him to break that record this weekend.
