5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 15
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
DraftKings Price: $5,900
Projected Points: 23.0
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.90
Tom Brady currently stands as the quarterback with the highest implied team total, at 27.25 points, on the main slate. Given what the slate is giving us this week -- which on the whole is very different from prior weeks -- Brady makes for an easy plug-and-play. The New England Patriots will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in what will be a highly-anticipated and potential shootout game as it goes beyond fantasy intrigue with the teams playing for playoff positioning in the AFC.
To start the season, Brady was struggling -- relative to prior years -- and understandably so. Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman were unavailable for stretches, and Josh Gordon was acquired midseason. Since their bye week, they've had all their key players in their offense playing together. As a result, the Patriots' offense has been rolling at full strength, averaging 2.2 points per game more than their season average of 26.2 since Week 11.
With a better surrounding cast around him, Brady’s numbers have gone up as a result. Over the course of the last three games, he’s averaged 317.3 passing yards with a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. This has translated to 67.8 DraftKings points -- third-most among all quarterbacks. Our Net Expected Points (NEP) model tends to agree that this is his best stretch, with Brady posting games of 15.5, 15.3 and 22.0 NEP -- all of which are better than any of his games pre-bye week.
The Patriots have emphasized the run game more than in year’s past, ranking 21st in pass-to-run ratio. However, there shouldn’t be a reason this game gets out of hand early, which would limit Brady’s attempts. As evident by the sportsbooks' lines -- at a 2.5-point spread -- the game script should stay neutral.
For a slate that is lacking offensive firepower, this game will be one of the more heavily targeted games for DFS purposes. Rostering Brady creates a higher lineup floor than trying to throw darts at the individual Patriots players.