NFL

2018 NFL Power Rankings: Week 15

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Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd


RankTeamnERDRecPlayoff OddsOff. NEP RankDef. NEP RankChange
32Arizona Cardinals-10.653-100.0%32120
31New York Jets-9.224-90.0%3021-1
30Oakland Raiders-8.033-100.0%2430-1
29Miami Dolphins-87-616.6%2331+2
28San Francisco 49ers-6.743-100.0%26240
27Washington Redskins-5.596-713.0%2817-3
26Buffalo Bills-5.44-90.0%3150
25Detroit Lions-5.215-82.1%2028+2
24Jacksonville Jaguars-4.54-90.0%2910-4
23Atlanta Falcons-4.24-90.1%1032-1


As we spoke about last week, the 2018 Dolphins’ wins have all been narrow, and Week 14 was no exception.

What did stand out about their improbable 34-33 win over New England on Sunday was the quality of opponent and how well they played.

The Patriots are sixth in the rankings, meaning they are just the second team with an above-average rating to fall to Miami this year. While the score was narrow, this was a strong performance by the Dolphins, who outgained the Patriots by 3.6 yards per play.

Even if we take away the team’s zany game-winning touchdown, the yards per play margin is +2.2 in Miami’s favor.

It was not just a small number of chunk plays skewing the numbers, either. In terms of Success Rate (the percentage of plays that produce positive NEP), Miami had a mark of 51.0% while New England was at 43.4%; the league average is about 46%.

The Dolphins came into the game ranked 25th in Success Rate margin (-3.2%), while New England was eighth (+3.9%), so this was obviously an atypical performance from both sides.

New England was able to keep the game close thanks to third-down performance on both sides of the ball, as the Patriots converted 9 of their 16 attempts, while Miami was just 1-for-7.

Still, the overall performance was enough to boost the Dolphins’ nERD rating by 1.72 points, the second largest gain of the week. They were starting from such a low place that they still don’t have the numbers of even an average team, but more performances like this will keep them fighting for a playoff berth anyway.