5 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Week 13

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Pay up for Goff in a Blowout

An exceedingly positive game-script is not always thought of as a good thing for passers. Sitting on a lead allows teams to run the ball and play conservatively. This is code for, "Quarterbacks score fewer points."

However, this isn't actually the case for many quarterbacks, including Jared Goff, who benefits when Vegas pins the Los Angeles Rams as favorites by a touchdown or more.

For a team to get a substantial lead, their quarterback almost certainly has to be playing well. So, when Vegas has the Rams as 10.0-point favorites over the Detroit Lions (stay up to date with line movement using numberFire's heat map), they are telling us that Goff will likely be playing well. At $8,400, Goff is the best value in numberFire's DFS projections this week.