5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 12
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings Price: $5,600
Projected Points: 20.04
Projected Value (points per $1,000): 3.69
Russell Wilson has been remarkable this season while stuck on a team that runs the ball 54% of the time. With that, Russ has been QB13 in seasonal scoring going into Week 12. While we don’t normally look at seasonal ranking for DFS purposes, it’s important to put the slate into context.
With extra prime time games this week and bye weeks still in effect, eight of the top twelve quarterbacks this week are not on the main slate. This hurts the quality in the quarterback pool, and we also have some mis-pricings shaking things up. For example, Tom Brady is the top QB despite being behind Wilson in seasonal rankings and being a sub-par DFS play this season.
Outside of the Week 4 dud Wilson posted, he’s scored 15 DraftKings points or more in all games. While it’s tough to continue to bet on touchdown passes, Wilson has found the paint frequently this season. The Seattle Seahawks quarterback has thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of his last six games, with at least three in half of those.
His opponent, the Carolina Panthers, have been friendly to opposing passers and have allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns on the season. The Panthers, a normally stout defense over the past few years, have not fared as well this season. Their Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play ranking (24th) has been a hard fall from the seventh-place finish they posted last year.
Anything Wilson may lack in passing yardage can be made up from rush attempts -- having recorded at least five rushes in four of his last six games.
Wilson is our top quarterback value on the main slate this week, with a projected passing line of 238.2 passing yards with 1.73 passing touchdowns and 0.74 interceptions. He's also projected to rush for 5.6 attempts for 33.50 and 0.28 touchdowns.