| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Buffalo Bills | -10.29 | 2-6 | 0.5% | 32 | 3 | 0 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -8.91 | 2-6 | 0.0% | 31 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 | Oakland Raiders | -8.17 | 1-6 | 0.1% | 21 | 30 | -3 |
| 29 | San Francisco 49ers | -8.12 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 27 | 25 | -1 |
| 28 | Miami Dolphins | -8.03 | 4-4 | 10.5% | 24 | 29 | +2 |
| 27 | Tennessee Titans | -6.57 | 3-4 | 6.6% | 26 | 20 | +2 |
| 26 | Detroit Lions | -5.09 | 3-4 | 8.9% | 13 | 32 | 0 |
| 25 | New York Giants | -4.39 | 1-7 | 0.0% | 23 | 24 | 0 |
| 23 | New York Jets | -4.03 | 3-5 | 7.7% | 29 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | -4.03 | 3-5 | 9.7% | 28 | 10 | -1 |
Week 2 seems like a really long time ago.
Back on September 16, the Jaguars comfortably beat the Patriots 31-20 in a rematch of the 2017 AFC Championship. Jacksonville improved to 2-0 and looked like Super Bowl contenders.
Since then, they have looked anything but, and have gone 1-5 while dropping their last four games.
It seems like there is Blake Bortles-sized hole on this team, as the defense has generally done its part. While it has perhaps not played at the level of last year’s unit that finished first in opponent-adjusted NEP, it is still 10th in that metric this season and second in yards allowed per play (5.0).
Offensively, they have fallen to 28th in NEP, as Bortles has struggled with both turnovers and efficiency.
He has thrown eight interceptions and his 2.9% interception rate is right around his subpar career average, while his passing success rate is more than two percent worse than league average.
Bortles’ receivers are averaging about 6.1 yards after catch per reception, which is about the same as last year, per AirYards.com. More has been needed though, as his average depth of target has dropped from 7.6 last year to 6.7 in 2018. This could suggest Jacksonville’s receivers are doing a worse job at getting open down the field, as research indicates aDOT “belongs” to receivers more than the quarterback.
Still, Bortles’ completion percentage is considerably lower than it what it should be given his aDOT (6.5% lower to be precise, according to AirYards.com).
Unless the passing game can return to a somewhat respectable level (or the Jacksonville defense can play at a historically dominant level, instead of a merely very good one), a return to championship weekend seems unlikely.