5 DraftKings Bargains for Week 5

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

DraftKings Price: $5,700

Projected Points: 23.5

Projected Value (points per $1,000): 4.17

It has rarely been a bad decision to start Matthew Stafford against the Green Bay Packers over the past few years. He's scored at least 23.88 DraftKings points in each of his past four meetings against his division rival and at least 16.78 points in each of his past seven.

Stafford is a pretty safe bet to at least return a decent value on your teams, especially considering that the Detroit Lions' running group has rushed for a combined 81 yards or fewer in three out of their four games this season. Detroit is passing the ball on 67.3% of its plays this season, which ranks as the fourth-highest rate in the league.

The Packers have limited three of their four opposing quarterbacks to 220 yards or fewer this season, though they have also allowed at least 15.04 DraftKings points to quarterbacks not named Josh Allen, including a 37.5 spot to Kirk Cousins during their 29-all affair against the Minnesota Vikings.

Exactly 11 quarterbacks have thrown the ball at least 150 times this season. Stafford's 67.9% completion rate ranks 5th-best in that group and 11th-best in the league. Green Bay ranks 19th against QB1's, according to our metrics.

This week's game has a total set at 51 points, which is amazingly just the fourth-highest of the week. Even so, that type of total is a great sign for quarterback scoring, especially as the 1.5-point spread indicates a back-and-forth game with the Lions needing to throw.

We have Stafford projected for 23.5 points. That equates to a value of 4.17 DraftKings points per $1,000, which is our highest-projected value on the slate. With Blake Bortles playing at Kansas City this week, Stafford could see a lower ownership rate than he should, making him an even more attractive play in tournaments.