5 NFL Red Zone Trends to Monitor for Week 2

Put Alvin Kamara's Touchdown Regression on Hold

Let me preface this by saying that I absolutely loath the take "so much for regression" when a player scores in Week 1. It's lazy analysis and a complete strawman that implies that the argument for regression is "it's impossible for this player to score more touchdowns" and not "it is likely that we see this player score fewer touchdowns moving forward".

With that being said, we could very well see Alvin Kamara continue to score at a ridiculous rate with Mark Ingram sidelined. Kamara dominated the running back snaps with Ingram suspended for Week 1 -- playing 81.2% of them -- and his workhorse role held up near the goal line.

No player saw more red zone opportunities (targets plus rush attempts) than Kamara's eight in Week 1. In fact, only two other players saw more than five. Sure, the New Orleans Saints were in a shootout, creating plenty of scoring chances. Their 16 red zone snaps were in a three-way tie for third on the week though, and Kamara's opportunity market share (72.7%) was the highest for a player on any team that saw at least five opportunities. The next best in that sample was over 10% lower, at 62.5%.

Kamara was the only Saints player to record a red zone carry in Week 1, and his five targets were also a team-high. Dominating the work in both areas while playing in such a high-powered offense leaves him with what might be the highest touchdown upside in the NFL among skill position players.