NFL

Week 1 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Eli Weiner  —  @eweinerfantasy Sep 5th, 2018
In what projects to be a shootout, Chris Hogan and the New England Patriots' passing game should prove valuable to start the year. Which other teams should we be targeting based on the Week 1 betting lines?

If you've played daily fantasy sports for a while, you've likely heard the term "game script" tossed around. If you're unfamiliar with the term, game script refers to the way that a game plays out. If you can predict how a game is going to unfold, you should have an easier time being able to predict which players will be in line for production.

Luckily, we don't have to try to predict the game scripts each week on our own. Oddsmakers do the job for us and have been perfecting their craft for decades. Betting odds are one of the many useful tools included in our Daily Fantasy Matchup Heat Map.

A couple years back, The Action Network's Chris Raybon conducted some excellent research regarding the correlation between FanDuel points per game and each stat for fantasy players. We'll use quarterbacks as our example. Predictably, the most highly-correlated stat with quarterback FanDuel points is passing touchdowns. Raybon also wrote a piece showing the correlation between Vegas odds and scoring in NFL games. From 2013 to 2015, team's listed as favorites have averaged 25.6 points and 1.79 passing touchdowns as opposed to 20.2 points and 1.41 passing touchdowns as underdogs.

Using these proven correlations, we're going to take a look at some of the more interesting game scripts each week and some correlation plays that can give you an edge in your daily fantasy contests on FanDuel. Let's get to it!

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