5 Wide Receivers With Major Touchdown Upside for 2018

DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins

This is another health-dependent one, as DeVante Parker's status for Week 1 is still up in the air. This drives down Parker's fantasy floor, but that doesn't mean he doesn't offer a big ceiling.

I mentioned in the last slide that Graham was one of two non-running backs with a red zone opportunity share north of 20%. The other was Miami Dolphins wideout Jarvis Landry, whose 23 red zone targets ranked third in the league as he accounted for a 32.4% target share and 22.8% opportunity share inside the 20. Julius Thomas also vacates 11 targets, so 56.3% of the team's red zone looks from last year are up for grabs.

Parker's 12 red zone targets from 2017 are the most among returning Dolphins players, and that accounted for a big 38.7% market share among the group. Kenny Stills' 10 are the next-most, and he'll present some competition, but Parker has outpaced Stills by two red zone targets in each of the three seasons that the pair has been in Miami.

The Miami offense doesn't project to be an especially high-scoring unit, having the sixth-lowest implied mark in points for (based on over/under lines from 5Dimes Sportsbook) and ranking 30th in offensive rating per numberFire's nERD Power Rankings. That limits their overall upside as a unit, and it's why Parker's significant market share (and especially his domination of the red zone targets that returning players have accounted for) is so valuable.

The Phins may not score many touchdowns, but Parker stands to see a significant chunk of the ones that they do score.

Of course, his edge over Stills has been slight. If Parker's injury proves significant, forcing him to miss big time, you'll be able to apply a lot of this to Stills. If your draft is late enough that you can wait on more news for Parker, keep a close eye on the situation.