NFL

Which Quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft Class Is Statistically Superior?

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2. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State

Games Played: 41 | Passing Efficiency Rating: 170.6 | AY/A: 10.7 | Total QBR: 84.9

Top Statistical Comp: Teddy Bridgewater

Mason Rudolph isn't generating nearly as much buzz as the rest of this class. Maybe that's because scouts don't view him as having elite talent. But it's also possible he's just being underrated by the public.

In terms of final-year efficiency, there are definitive tiers in this class. Mayfield is in a tier by his own, then there's a big falloff to Rudolph. But Rudolph also sits in his own tier, being the only other passer with an AY/A higher than 9.0, and he's all the way up at 10.7.

We do need to keep in mind -- as with Mayfield -- that Rudolph is older than the rest of the crop. But going back to each player's numbers in their age-20 season, Rudolph was still second behind Mayfield in both AY/A and passing efficiency rating. He went on to beast out in his final year with Oklahoma State, and he deserves to be taken seriously in what seems to be a loaded class.

Rudolph has the disadvantage of playing in the Big 12 with Mayfield, again where defense has a reputation for being optional. Because Rudolph's stats weren't as outlierishly-delicious as Mayfield's, that could be a reason for pushing him later in the draft. It really shouldn't though.

Thankfully for both Rudolph and Mayfield, a fellow former Big 12 quarterback has been generating some major buzz in the NFL. The Kansas City Chiefs traded up to select Patrick Mahomes in this most recent draft. Not only did he impress in the preseason, but the Chiefs felt good enough about Mahomes to ship incumbent Alex Smith out of town last week. The Chiefs clearly believe in Mahomes, who played against the same defenses that Rudolph and Mayfield have faced the past few years.

The other advantage of having Mahomes as a perceived success is that we can compare these three guys against common opponents. These three faced seven of the same opposing defenses in 2016. How did each perform in those samples?

Against Common Opponents in 2016AttemptsY/ATDINTAY/A
Baker Mayfield19010.7521611.54
Mason Rudolph2498.751739.57
Patrick Mahomes3207.731977.93


Mahomes had the clear edge in volume, but both Rudolph and Mayfield had far superior efficiency stats. And Mahomes' stats still measured up well against his peers in last year's class, so it's not as if he was some numerical scrub. The other two just might actually be good.

The draft capital required to get guys like Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, and Allen is likely to be high. That doesn't seem as if it'll be the case for Rudolph. If there's a quarterback-needy team picking outside the top 10, Rudolph could provide them a shot at a talented signal caller without the need to trade up. Based on what Rudolph did in college, that's certainly a viable strategy.

It's worth mentioning again that the opinions of scouts do matter as draft capital is a good predictor of future success. If they're not sold on Rudolph, then these numbers don't mean as much. But if the scouts come around and start to get behind him, the stats seem to say that Rudolph could be the surprise stud from this group.