Super Bowl LII: 5 Interesting Prop Bets to Target

Who Will Throw the First Interception? Tom Brady (+120)

The number +120 in parentheses will appear with each bet covered in this article. It is the vigorish, or as it's more commonly known, the juice, the vig, or the take. If you bet $10 on this and it wins, you would win $12.

If you were to bet on Nick Foles throwing the first pick, you would be betting on a moneyline of -150. This isn't nearly as good of a value as Tom Brady's +120. Why would we take Brady, the greatest quarterback of all-time, to throw the first pick over a backup quarterback?

This is a fair question, but let's start with how often each player throws the ball. Brady threw 672 passes during the regular season and playoffs for an average of 37.33 per game. Foles, who played significantly less, threw 164 times for an average of 32.8 passes over five games. We can expect Brady to throw a few more passes than Foles on Sunday.

Brady has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio for a regular season in NFL history when he threw 28 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions in 2016. But let's not forget that it was Foles who had previously held the record when he threw 27 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions in 2013.

And while Brady's career interception rate is an astounding 1.8%, Foles' career interception rate is a very good 2.1%. Foles' number would rank seventh all-time if he had the minimum of 1,500 passing attempts. He is about 100 passes away.

I expect the Eagles to limit Foles to short and safe passes to go along with a strong rushing attack. Philadelphia's second-best pass defense per our nERD metrics will make things tough on Brady.