Projecting the New England Patriots backfield from week-to-week can be difficult, but on a slate with just four teams, Dion Lewis looks to be a good play against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

This season, the Pitt product has played better in games when the Pats were favored by more than a touchdown. Per the Rotoviz Game Splits App, Lewis has averaged 12.43 half-PPR points per game when the Patriots have been favored by more than a touchdown.

Additionally, Patriots games in which they were favored by more than a touchdown went over the total in 7 of 11 games. The total in this game is 46 points, about a touchdown higher than the total in the NFC Championship game.

There's a chance Rex Burkhead may play which would temper expectations a bit for Lewis, but Lewis remains the safest option in the backfield. He is priced at $7,700 on FanDuel which ranks second among running backs. He is worth starting in all formats.