Week 14 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: The Post-Wentz Eagles
Rushing Market Shares
1. Jay Ajayi Edges Forward While Still Being Limited
One strategy the Eagles could take would be to limit exposure to Nick Foles by running the ball early and often. That would seemingly benefit Jay Ajayi. But his situation is a complicated one to dissect because there are a multitude of factors at play.
The positive for Ajayi -- outside of the potential for a more rush-centric offense -- is that his role Sunday was the meatiest he has seen since the Eagles acquired him. He played 47.3% of the snaps while controlling 15 of 28 running-back carries. He added two targets, as well. Clearly, they're more comfortable rolling him out there now than they were when he first got there.
Even with that, though, Ajayi is far from being a workhorse. If you're going to be largely a rush-only running back who plays half the snaps, you had better hope your quarterback is efficient enough to generate scoring drives. If not, your team will fall behind, and your role in the offense will dry up in a hurry. That's the concern here.
The way you handle Ajayi depends on how you think they'll do with Foles at the helm. If you think the team's offensive line and pass catchers can help keep the offense remain competent, then Ajayi may benefit from an offense that puts more emphasis on the ground game. If you believe that the team will struggle with Wentz on the shelf, Ajayi has almost no DFS value. That's how things work for players of this mold.
Against the Giants, it's fully possible that Foles is able to lead an efficient offense that puts some points on the board. But with Ajayi still losing some work to Corey Clement and LeGarrette Blount, the risk seems to be a bit greater than the reward. For now, things are likely a bit too spread out to trust any asset in this backfield truly until Foles proves otherwise.
2. Jamaal Williams Maintains His Role
With Aaron Jones being an additional week removed from his knee injury, it was fair to assume that he would siphon some work away from Jamaal Williams in Week 14, canceling out any value we could have otherwise found in this backfield.
Williams gave that notion the nah wave.
Instead, Williams played 50 of 76 snaps while Jones played just 8. The carries also favored Williams 15 to 1. This was in addition to seven targets in the passing game for Williams, which marked a career high. He was just an increased snap rate away from being a bellcow.
This is about to matter a whole lot more. Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return from injured reserve this week, which would immediately send the value of all assets in this offense through the roof. That would include Williams if he were to maintain his role from Sunday.
Williams' salary accounts for this as he is $7,300 on FanDuel for Week 15. But if he's going to hold this role with Rodgers as his quarterback, he could be worth much more than that price tag. And that's true even in a tough matchup with the Carolina Panthers.
Keep an eye on the news this week. If Rodgers is able to suit back up, then Williams may be a player we want to target despite a rough opponent. But even if Rodgers can't go, Williams' role seems fairly secure, meaning his pricing isn't outrageous no matter who's at the helm.
3. Peyton Barber May Finally Get His Chance
When Peyton Barber busted out for 143 yards from scrimmage in Week 13, it looked like he had earned an expanded role in the offense. Instead, the team sent him right back to the bench with Doug Martin returning from a concussion in Week 14.
That benching didn't last long.
Early on, it was, indeed, Martin who got all of the work, and they were giving him plenty of volume. But with 3:41 left in the second quarter, Martin lost a fumble in Detroit Lions territory, preventing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from taking a two-score lead. That was all she wrote for his day.
From that point on, Barber handled nine carries, Charles Sims had three, and Martin had none. Barber added a target, as well, while playing 43.7% of the team's snaps. This is the second time that Martin has effectively been benched in-game for Barber, making it more likely that it would be permanent this time around.
So, with three games left on the schedule, what does this mean for Barber's outlook?
Two of those games will be against teams -- the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints -- that struggle to stop opposing ground games. But the Buccaneers will also likely be underdogs in all three, meaning they could be forced to abandon the rush, limiting Barber's viability. They picked a poor time to ride the hot hand.
Overall, this usage at least means that Barber will be worth a sniff on the Week 15 Thursday-through-Monday slate. He's $5,200, which helps account for a bit of the risk associated with the potential game flow. It's late in the year, and Barber is young, so it makes sense for the team to see what he's got. We may as well do the same when the price is that forgiving.
