Week 12 Fantasy Football Market Share Report: Anticipating Derrick Henry

Rushing Market Shares

1. Derrick Henry Earns Additional Looks

We've been waiting for this one pretty much all year. While DeMarco Murray has dealt with a nagging hamstring issue, Derrick Henry has lurked in the background, waiting to spring up and steal a larger piece of the pie in the Tennessee Titans' backfield. At least as much as someone who is shaped like an adolescent rhino is capable of lurking. Week 12 presented a bit of a shift in that dynamic.

Below is a look at each guys' carry market share by game since their bye in Week 8. This is just the percentage of the team's carries by running backs that went to each of the top two. It wasn't a big swing, but it's one we need to note.

For just the third time all year -- and the first time since Week 6 -- Henry finished with more carries than Murray. He also out-snapped Murray, playing 55.2% of the snaps, his second-highest mark of the year. And we can't chalk this one up to Murray's hamstring, either, after he practiced in full all week. They just decided to ride with the more effective back.

On the season, 46.49% of Henry's runs have increased the team's expected points for the drive, according to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. That's compared to just 30.23% for Murray. This is why Henry has rushed for 68 more yards despite handling 15 fewer carries. From an efficiency standpoint, it's clear that Henry has been the superior runner.

This is why we can't ignore a one-carry difference in their totals, as small as that may seem. Henry has been the better back this year, and it's possible the Titans are reacting to that by pumping him additional volume. And if we're trying to predict what will happen in the future, it's reasonable to think that this trend could continue.

This discussion is especially important when you look ahead on Tennessee's schedule. They'll host the Houston Texans in Week 13, a game in which the Titans should be favored. If they get ahead and are able to pound the football, we could see Henry get decent usage. At a price of $5,400 on FanDuel, Henry's an intriguing value option on the chance that the Titans continue to up his workload.

2. Don't Give Up on Mark Ingram

Sunday wasn't a pretty one for Mark Ingram and the New Orleans Saints. Until a late touchdown, they were trailing the Rams by two scores for most of the day. And that's not a script that is conducive to heavy Ingram usage, something that showed up on the stat sheet.

Ingram finished with just 11 carries and 3 targets, his fewest total opportunities since Week 2. He had 11 carries and 4 targets last week. When you consider how good Alvin Kamara has looked in those two games, it makes sense that Ingram's workload would start to slide.

When we compare the two heads up, though, we see that this isn't really the case. Although Ingram's raw volume has gone down, it's not because Kamara is getting more carries. They just haven't been able to run the ball as often due to game flow.

When the team has decided to run the ball, it has still been going to Ingram more often than not. Instead of stealing from Ingram, Kamara has thrived because he has 21.1% of the team's targets the past three weeks on top of the work he gets as a rusher. That's while Ingram still has seven targets of his own the past two weeks, and that doesn't include a receiving touchdown that was overturned by a penalty. If the team had been leading, it's likely that Ingram would have seen his regular usage.

This is impactful for two reasons. First, it shows that Ingram should be fine if the Saints are able to get back to the dominant ways they were flashing before. Second, it means Kamara could be in trouble in those situations as it would decrease the volume he sees in the passing game. If he's not getting targets, his touch expectation takes a big hit.

This dynamic will be at play in Week 13. The Saints are hosting the Carolina Panthers, a game in which the Saints should be favored. Normally, we'd think this was more of a Kamara game because the Panthers have a solid rush defense. And it may wind up being that way. But because the Saints are favored, that passing-game usage for Kamara is far from a guarantee, meaning we may be wise to pedal back exposure to him while shuffling a bit more ownership Ingram's direction.

3. Rod Smith Snags Some Early-Down Work

With the way the Dallas Cowboys are playing, it may seem a bit moot to discuss the workloads of their running backs. They're trailing big time, and it means the ground game just doesn't exist late in games. We'll touch on why it could matter in just a second.

But first, it's important to note that Rod Smith took away some early-down work from Alfred Morris back on Thanksgiving. In the three games since Ezekiel Elliott's suspension began, here are the respective rushing workloads for each player.

If we narrow the scope to just the first three quarters on Thursday (before the Los Angeles Chargers put the game in the bag), Morris led the team in carries, but Smith still had six compared to nine for Morris. Even if Morris is the lead back, the gap is definitely shrinking.

You can chalk this all up to blowouts if you want, or you could say it's because they were playing on a Thursday, but the point remains: Morris is losing work to Smith. And as unlikely as it may seem, that is significant.

The Cowboys are still yet to play an entire game in the post-Zeke era with their full complement of starters up front. They finally got left tackle Tyron Smith back in Week 12, but then All-Pro guard Zack Martin left with a concussion after just 20 snaps. If Martin is able to go in Week 13, this ground game could finally find some traction against Washington.

It's possible that Morris will still get the first crack, and he may be able to get in a rhythm if both Smith and Martin are healthy. But the threat of Rod Smith is much more pertinent now than it was after Week 10. Morris is a player you can start in season-long leagues, but from a DFS perspective, there may be too much ambiguity to warrant investment even with a healthy offensive line possibly on the horizon.