5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 9

New Orleans Saints' Passing Offense

We don't often get Drew Brees at home at reduced ownership. With Watson now no longer an option, our odds of getting Brees at low ownership just took a bit of a hit. But that doesn't lower the appeal in using him at all.

Not only are the New Orleans Saints at home for Week 9, but they're also in a top-notch matchup. They'll be hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank 29th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They have allowed fantasy juggernauts Mike Glennon, Case Keenum, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer to all throw for at least 280 yards against them this year. Part of that is certainly due to injuries, but the team could be without cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Robert McClain again in Week 9. Things aren't looking up just yet.

You could look at last week -- in which they held Cam Newton to 154 yards on 32 attempts -- as a sign that the defense is trending up, even without Grimes and McClain. But with heavy winds playing a role throughout the game, it's hard to draw any definitive conclusions there. They won't get assistance from Mother Nature in the Superdome, and Brees is about as stiff of a test as you can get.

That said, we haven't had the "normal" Brees from a fantasy perspective this year. He has topped 20 points on FanDuel just three times, never going above 22.24, and one of those 20-point efforts was propped up by a rushing touchdown. Can he really be worth a price tag of $8,300?

While it's fair to have some reservations about Brees' ceiling, there are plenty of reasons to believe he's capable of big point totals. As noted by Rotoworld's Rich Hribar, 60% of the Saints' touchdowns the past three games have come on the ground. The league-average rate there is 30%. One of those games was a 52-point outburst, and you don't expect Brees' fantasy performance to suffer when that happens. It could just be that Brees has been on the wrong side of touchdown variance.

On top of that, Brees has still been among the most efficient passers in the league this year. He enters Week 9 ranked third in the league in Passing NEP per drop back, which includes deductions for negative plays such as sacks, interceptions, and incompletions. This is a guy who will generate touchdown drives, especially against a poor defense. If the touchdowns break his way, he could go off.

Even though the Saints are seven-point favorites, which could lead to another rush-heavy script, this game has the second-highest over/under on the main slate. You're getting a bit of a discount on Brees, too, with this being his cheapest salary at home since November of last year. That's enough to make him one of the top plays at quarterback for the week.

It's not just Brees who's due for some touchdown regression; Michael Thomas hasn't scored since Week 4, but that's not a problem we should expect to persist.

Thomas' usage this year has been tremendous from both a floor and upside perspective. He has 25.2% of the team's overall targets, 34.2% of their targets at least 16 yards downfield, and 3 of 14 targets inside the 10-yard line. With his price at just $7,600, it's time to start buying Thomas aggressively, especially if you're deploying Brees at quarterback.

That said, it's also entirely reasonable to get exposure to the passing game via the running backs, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

Once you take Thomas out of the equation, the next two team leaders in target market share are Kamara and Ingram, respectively. Those roles have picked up some juice in the three games since Adrian Peterson's departure, too.

Even with Ingram having lost a pair of fumbles late last week, his role in the passing game gives him a solid floor. And if Ingram does lose any work, Kamara would be the primary benefactor for just $6,600 on FanDuel. There's a lot to like in these two guys, and those target market shares make it a viable strategy to pair them with Brees without capping your team's upside.