5 Fantasy Football Splits That Matter for Week 4
The Atlanta Falcons' Blitzkrieg at Home
"Blitzkrieg" was a method of warfare based on speed and concentrated firepower that the Germans used in World War II. It's also an accurate description of how the Atlanta Falcons attacked their opponents at home during the first half last season, as displayed in the below table.
| Opponent | 1st Half Plays | 1st Half Points |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 | 13 |
| Carolina Panthers | 30 | 17 |
| San Diego Chargers | 28 | 27 |
| Green Bay Packers | 29 | 19 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 17 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 38 | 16 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 33 | 28 |
| New Orleans Saints | 28 | 35 |
| DIV - Seattle Seahawks | 30 | 19 |
| CONF - Green Bay Packers | 47 | 24 |
Atlanta averaged 21.5 first-half points at home during the 2016 regular season, 4.1 more than the next-closest team. This historical trend carried over into this season when the Falcons recorded 24 points on 36 first-half plays against the Green Bay Packers in Week 2.
Tevin Coleman has been out-touched by teammate Devonta Freeman 45-17 the last two weeks, while the latter also recorded a 62.6% snap rate in that span. Assuming Freeman continues seeing that type of volume Sunday, it's worth noting that he's averaged 21.73 fantasy points and 1.33 rushing touchdowns in his last nine home games.
If we combine that with Atlanta's pace at home and upcoming matchup against the Buffalo Bills -- the 15th-ranked defense according to Adjusted Defensive Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP), which is adjusted for strength of schedule -- makes Freeman and the entirety of Atlanta's offense juicy players to target in fantasy.
