Week 4 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
Over/Under: 48.5
Patriots Implied Team Total: 28.75
Panthers Implied Team Total: 19.75
This is a bit of an odd slate, as neither of the two games with the highest over/under on the week are included. That leaves this matchup between the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers as the highest projected scoring game. The Pats have scored 36 points in consecutive games and Carolina is coming off of a 34-13 thrashing at the hands of the New Orleans Saints, so New England's slate-leading implied team total certainly seems warranted.
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
FanDuel Price: $9,500
Tom Brady's price continues to get more exorbitant, but what is FanDuel supposed to do? The dude's last two games have yielded a 412.5-yard, 4-touchdown, and 33.3-FanDuel-point average. While those numbers may be a bit unsustainable, the game script in this one certainly suggests Brady could be in store for another big performance.
The Patriots are no strangers to large spreads, as they have been favored by at least nine points in 16 of Brady's 31 starts since 2015. As evidenced below, playing in such games has had a direct benefit on Brady's performance.
While Carolina stifled opposing passing games in the first two weeks (the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills), Drew Brees and company made their defense look a lot less intimidating. The only real concern for Brady is that an ineffective and seemingly injured Cam Newton is unable to keep this game competitive enough for the Pats to keep their foot on the gas.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
FanDuel Price: $6,400
With just three games under his belt, it is tough to draw many definitive conclusions on how game script affects Christian McCaffrey. However, last week's blowout loss showed the upside is there for him to be a monster in negative game scripts, especially on full-PPR sites such as DraftKings. With Carolina playing catch up, McCaffrey caught 9 of 11 targets for 101 yards, bringing his receiving average up to 7.7 targets, 6 catches, and 56.7 yards through three games.
He now leads the team in targets, catches, and receiving yards, while also out-snapping Jonathan Stewart 131-80. With Greg Olsen out and Kelvin Benjamin yet to practice this week, the rookie should continue to see all the targets he can handle.
Oh yeah, not only will the Panthers likely be playing catch up again, but the Patriots are really bad at covering opposing backs out of the backfield. Last season, they allowed the second-most catches and third-most receiving yards to opposing backs and haven't looked any better in 2017. In Week 1, Kareem Hunt caught all 5 of his targets for 98 yards and 2 scores. In Weeks 2 and 3, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, and D'Onta Foreman combined for 140 yards on 9 catches.
McCaffrey should be heavily utilized in the passing game and is a quite affordable way to game stack this one.
Others to Consider
Mike Gillislee ($6,000) could theoretically be a tournament play with the Pats listed as such large favorites, but the touchdown-dependent back has played in just 33.8% of the team's snaps thus far, so it is probably best to just focus on the passing game.
Like his quarterback, Rob Gronkowski ($8,500) has provided a huge edge over the competition at his position over the past two weeks, averaging 19.8 FanDuel points. Also similar to Brady, his price has inflated to a point to which it is certainly worth considering looking for other options. However, if simply looking for a high-upside pairing, you cannot beat Brady-to-Gronk with a near-30-point implied team total.
Brandin Cooks ($7,900) finally got loose in Week 3, catching 5 of 7 targets for 151 yards and 2 scores. However, he has just one more target than Chris Hogan ($6,900) this season, who has also out-snapped Cooks and is tied with Gronk for the team-lead in red zone targets. If pairing Brady with a receiver, I'd take the $1,000 savings and roll with Hogan.
McCaffrey isn't the only viable play on the Carolina side of the ball. Devin Funchess ($5,400) finds himself as potentially the last-man standing and saw 10 targets last week. With the way Newton has played, those likely won't be high quality targets, but you'll be hard-pressed to find many players this cheap who could realistically see double-digit targets.
