3 Vegas Betting Trends to Help Set Your Week 2 Daily Fantasy Football Lineup
It's no secret that Vegas totals and spreads can be helpful hints when making fantasy football decisions -- especially in daily fantasy games.
This week, for example, Dak Prescott owners may want to stream Joe Flacco, because the Baltimore Ravens have a higher implied team total than the Dallas Cowboys, who are at the Denver Broncos in what Vegas thinks will be a defensive affair. This week, Flacco will almost certainly be higher owned than Prescott in DFS lineups, and the Vegas totals and spread will be a significant reason for that.
Unfortunately, as professional NFL handicapper Warren Sharp has pointed out, Vegas' primary goal is not to set the most accurate lines. Vegas' goal is to make money, and they do that by encouraging public action on a particular side. What does that mean?
Let’s say Vegas opens the line on a game with Team X favored to beat Team Y by 7 points. If 80% of the public money coming in is in favor of Team X against the spread, but Vegas still does not adjust the line, that demonstrates that either there is sharp money on Team Y or that Vegas feels confident about Team Y against the spread. Either way, by examining how Vegas is moving lines in comparison to where the public is betting, we can potentially gain an edge when making lineup decisions.