NFL

5 Fantasy Football Splits That Matter for Week 2

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Marqise Lee's Rapport With Blake Bortles

The Jacksonville Jaguars' passing attack hasn't exactly been a beacon of consistency in recent years, and it doesn't help that Allen Robinson has been lost for the season with a torn left ACL. Looking ahead, though, his absence on the field leaves a significant number of targets available from last season that need to be re-distributed.

Robinson had played in 32 straight games dating back to 2015, but did miss the final six games of the 2014 regular season. Marqise Lee took advantage of that opportunity by averaging 7.5 targets, 4 receptions, and 46.8 yards during that span. That was quite a while ago, but his recent performance in comparison to Jacksonville's other options in the passing game is worth noting when using our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric.

NEP is a proprietary metric that adds (or subtracts) an expected point value to every situation on the field, which is determined by looking at historical results in similar game situations (down, distance, line of scrimmage).

When we take a look at Reception NEP per target from the 2016 season, Lee's 0.68 mark out-paced both Robinson (0.57) and Allen Hurns (0.47). In keeping the comparison with Robinson, Lee nearly duplicated his total receiving yards (883 to 851) despite seeing 46 fewer targets.

Jacksonville recorded 39 carries (36 via running backs) and the second-highest run rate (65 percent) of any team in Week 1. They do want to run more this year, but that was likely also dictated by the game script in a 29-7 rout of the Houston Texans. That could limit Lee's ceiling, but the absence of Robinson could provide him with enough volume to elevate his performance floor.