Breaking news: LeGarrette Blount isn't going to score 18 touchdowns this year.
No, no -- that's not why he's on this overrated list. It's not as though folks are drafting him in the second round. They're taking him in the fifth in standard leagues and sixth in PPR formats.
But that's still too high.
Why? Well, let's first take a look at the significant changes per drive Blount is going to see going from New England to Philadelphia this season.
| Team | Average Margin | Scoring Rate | TD Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | Up 7.2 | 45.10% | 29.50% |
| Eagles | Down 1.2 | 39.90% | 19.70% |
Those numbers are from 2016, and they're fairly significant when you consider the game script changes Blount will see. With New England last season, he carried the ball 299 times, with just 38 of those touches coming while his team was trailing. He averaged a 3.9 yards per carry average in total last year, but when trailing, that number dropped to 3.3.
Over Blount's career, just a quarter of his scores have come while his team has trailed, too.
That could be trouble for him in Philly this year -- according to our numbers, they've got one of the tougher schedules in football, and their defensive matchups rank sixth-hardest. Positive game scripts won't be a cakewalk.
And given the probability of more negative game scripts, we also know he's not going to be a primary pass-catcher in an offense with Darren Sproles and rookie Donnel Pumphrey, especially when you consider Blount's seen a combined 15 targets over his last two seasons in New England and, over his seven-year career, has caught just 46 balls.
When the Eagles are trailing, LeGarrette Blount won't be on the field. That could make him a week-to-week mess to figure out from a fantasy perspective, and it also makes him someone I don't want a ton of in fantasy football this year.