Fantasy Football: 4 Historical Vegas Trends You Should Know for Wild Card Weekend

Start the Texans Defense in a Game With a Low Over/Under

The Houston Texans play at home in a Saturday matinee game against the Oakland Raiders. Rookie quarterback Connor Cook is expected to get the start after the Raiders lost Derek Carr for the season. Backup quarterback Matthew McGloin, whose last name sounds like a disturbing McDonald's sandwich, is also expected to miss this game due to injury.

With only eight defenses to choose from, this pick may end up being chalky, but we cannot ignore the over/under on this game. The current total is sitting at 36.5 points. There has not been a game all regular season with a total this low. The game opened with a total of 37.5 and has dropped a point. The Texans are favored by 3.5 points while Raiders have an implied total of just 16.25 points.

Back in March of 2016, I wrote about how line movement affects defensive performances, and when the total was between 39 and 42 points in 2015, the defenses involved averaged 8.06 fantasy points per game. In that same year, when the total was 39 or lower, the average score for defenses rose to 9.07 fantasy points per game.

The Houston D/ST is priced at $4,800 on FanDuel, the second-most expensive D/ST, making them a safe option for cash games. For tournaments, it may be best lean more towards the Oakland D/ST, who are priced at $4,700, because the Texans will likely be highly owned.