5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 16
Because we're now fully into the holiday season, it's important to remind ourselves of life's most joyful reality: everything and everybody you care about is going to disappoint you.
Your crazy uncle was the bomb when you were a kid, but when you're older, you realize he's actually kinda racist. That Hallmark movie you watched in front of the Christmas tree with your mom is better suited for the trash than the tube. And you enjoy that 1,600-piece Lego set now, but get back to me after you've dislodged all 1,600 from your foot for the third time.
This is going to happen. We build things up in our mind, and when they let us down, there's a desire to just cut things off forever. The "never-again" mindset is likely the best course of action for any movie where two longing souls find love beneath a hanging, parastic plant, but it's not going to cut it for daily fantasy sports. Here, we can never write off those who burn us the most, no matter how much it may hurt.
We can get some assistance in overcoming our scorched hearts by using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP), the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players with the team totals being adjusted for strength of schedule.
Here's how NEP works. Prior to each play, there's an expected number of points the offense will score on its current drive. A three-yard completion on 3rd-and-2 picks up a first down, increasing those expected points. That same three-yard completion on 3rd-and 4,-though, likely results in a punt, and NEP helps show the difference between these two results.
We've been disappointed plenty of times this year, and it'll likely happen again going forward. But let's use this tool to spot some teams in solid matchups for Week 16, regardless of what our past experiences may say about them.