5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 12
As all the peeps in America get set for the gorge-fest we call Thanksgiving, it's important to pause a moment and reflect on that which makes us thankful in the most important areas of life. Obviously, because a good chunk of us are degenerate nerds, that's referring to daily fantasy football.
We're thankful for predictable dominance. When a team we expect to excel does exactly that, it makes our weekly decisions that much easier.
We're thankful for trends that hold. If a player suddenly catches fire in one game and then just keeps on shredding opposing defenses, it's something we can buy into, and it's hard not to love that.
We're thankful for clarity. Unpredictable volume is the Thanksgiving-equivalent to a meal without green bean casserole. You just feel uneasy the whole time, unsure whether you should scream or accept the mediocrity. Bringing clarity to the fold leaves us satisfied every time.
On the main slate in Week 12, we get each and every single one of these delectable factors. Blessed be the schedule-making deities.
We can spot a few of these using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP), the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players with the team totals being adjusted based on strength of opponent.
Here's how NEP works. Prior to each play, there's an expected number of points the offense will score on its current drive. A three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 picks up a first down, resulting in an increase in those expected points and giving the offense positive NEP. That same three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, though, likely ends in a punt, and NEP will help reflect the difference in the two outcomes.
We've got mismatches and situations ripe for the picking on this week's main slate. Here are five matchups for which we can be thankful in Week 12 in NFL DFS.