The 10 Most Impactful Plays of Week 10

​Honorable Mentions

So what is NEP? By adding down-and-distance value to standard box score information, we can see just how much each play and each team as a whole influence the outcome of games. If a player passes for five yards on 3rd-and-2, it means more to the game than it does on 3rd-and-10, and those plays should be valued accordingly. For more info on NEP, check out our glossary.

Each play has an NEP value. Each play also changes the win probability (WP) of the game. I factored those values together to see which plays were the most impactful to the moment on the field and the game as a whole.

Below were some exciting moments from the week with big value swings in one category, but didn’t cut it in the other.

10. Denver Broncos cornerback Bradley Roby punches the ball out of New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas's arms. Safety Darian Stewart recovers the loose ball (WP: +17.36, NEP: +5.45).
9. Kansas City Chiefs safety Eric Berry picks off Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton and brings it back for a touchdown (WP: +15.56, NEP: +6.97).
8. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles tosses an easy pick-six to Houston Texans cornerback Kareem Jackson (WP: +14.66, NEP: +7.61).
7. Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler gives up interception to former teammate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Chris Conte, who brings it back to score (WP: +15.82, NEP: +7.41).
6. San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers throws fourth-quarter pick to Miami Dolphins cornerback Tony Lippett in the Dolphins’ end zone (WP: +33.02, NEP: +5.86).

Now onto the top-five plays of the week!