5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 10
Right about now, we all need a distraction. Something with which we can infatuate ourselves so that everything outside of sports can take a backseat for just a hot second.
This week, that infatuation is gorging ourselves on David Johnson in daily fantasy football.
Johnson and his Arizona Cardinals are facing the San Francisco 49ers, who have allowed an opposing running back to rush for at least 100 yards in seven consecutive games, including four straight outings of at least 138 yards. Johnson's one of the best backs in the game, and dude is going to eat. But that beastliness comes at a cost.
Johnson is easily the most expensive player on the entire slate at $9,400 on FanDuel, much more than we generally want to pay for a running back in a tournament. But this matchup is so tempting that we're not going to be able to pass it up, forcing us to get a bit creative in other spots.
Fret not, comrades. On this slate, we can bask in all of the Johnson exposure without limiting ourselves elsewhere thanks to some juicy matchups for lower-cost players.
We can spot these matchups using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP), the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players with the team totals being adjusted based on strength of schedule.
Here's how NEP works. Prior to each play, there is an expected number of points for an offense on its current drive. A three-yard completion on 3rd and 2 picks up a first down, increasing those expected points and giving the team positive NEP. That same three-yard completion on 3rd and 4, though, likely results in a punt, and NEP helps qualify for the difference between the two outcomes.
It's still not going to be easy to swallow Johnson's salary, but you can absolutely do it. Here are five matchups that will help you get there in Week 10.