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Jordy Nelson Owners Should Worry

Something has been off with the Green Bay Packers' offense for far too long.

Many thought last season's woes were a direct result of star wideout Jordy Nelson's absence. But things haven't gotten back to normal in Titletown in 2016, even with his return.

Nelson simply doesn't look as fast as he did in 2014, when his field stretching ability inevitably helped the running and short passing games as well.

Using numberFire's signature in-house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), which quantifies a player's performance above-or-below expectation, we can confirm that Nelson's been far less effective than he has in the past. You can learn more about NEP by checking our glossary.

SeasonRec NEPRec NEP/TargetRec Success Rate
200837.170.6993.94%
200929.370.9595.45%
201046.790.7391.11%
2011117.331.2294.12%
201267.950.9391.84%
2013117.070.9287.06%
2014140.050.9391.84%
201632.330.6385.15%


Nelson is currently on pace to have his least efficient season, logging a below-league average 0.63 Reception NEP per target through six games. He's also on track to set a career low in Reception Success Rate, which is the percentage of receptions that positively contribute to NEP. In other words, he's not making the big, splash plays anymore, and he's not moving the chains as frequently either.

Aaron Rodgers seems to be taking notice too, having delivered almost as many targets Davante Adams’ way this season (43 to Nelson's 51). And Adams is simply doing more with them by putting up an impressive 0.84 Reception NEP per target on a 92.86% Reception Success Rate.

Adams' 16-target game against the Chicago Bears could be a barometer of things to come, where the Packers rely less on Nelson and more on Adams' recent career rejuvenation.

And that spells potential trouble for Nelson owners.