Week 7 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Diego Chargers

Over/Under: 53.5
Falcons Implied Team Total: 30.00
Chargers Implied Team Total: 23.50

This matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and San Diego Chargers will certainly have the attention of all daily fantasy players, as the 53.5-point over/under is easily the highest on the slate.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

FanDuel Price: $7,500

Devonta Freeman and the Falcons boast a 30-point implied team total, which more than any other team this week. While there is certainly plenty of fantasy goodness to be had for all of Atlanta's players within that 30-point total, none would appear to be more positively affected by the game script than Freeman.

Since the beginning of last season, the Falcons are 12-9. In the 12 wins, Freeman has averaged 19.3 carries, 86.7 rushing yards, and 1.1 rushing touchdowns. In the nine losses, he has seen those numbers dip to 13.6 carries, 52.3 yards, and 0.1 touchdowns. As Raybon pointed out in his piece covering Vegas odds, "Winning teams rush for 35 more yards and double the touchdown output of losing teams, which equates to winners averaging roughly 6.5 more fantasy points per game. Favorites average a lower -- but still very significant -- figure of 2.8 more rushing fantasy points per game than underdogs."

In addition to game script setting up beautifully, Freeman's matchup is quite appealing too. The Chargers have allowed the third-most FanDuel points per game to opposing running backs this season. They also appear to be somewhat of a funnel defense, ranking 8th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, but 17th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play.

If the Falcons are playing with the lead as they are projected to, Freeman should see a healthy workload against San Diego's very beatable rush defense, making him a terrific play. In fact, our projections have Freeman listed as the fifth-highest raw-point scorer at the running back position and the best value of any running back.

Hunter Henry, TE, San Diego Chargers

FanDuel Price: $5,800

Hunter Henry turned in yet another career-best performance last week against a tough Denver Broncos defense, totaling 6 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. He also led the team in targets (8) while playing 68 percent of the offensive snaps, more than any other Chargers tight end. He now has three consecutive games with a score and is up to third in FanDuel points per game among tight ends on this slate.

Since his return, Antonio Gates has been out-snapped and out-targeted by Henry. He has clearly been limited in the last two games, playing more of a decoy role, which should allow Henry to continue to be heavily featured for the Chargers.

Henry gets a much easier matchup this week, as San Diego takes on the Falcons, who have been embarrassed by opposing tight ends this season. On the season, the Falcons have given up the third-most FanDuel points to opposing tight ends. Outside of a game against the Broncos (whose tight group has averaged a combined 2.8 catches for 30.5 yards this season), opposing tight ends have averaged 88 yards and 1 touchdown against them.

A game stack pairing Freeman with Henry makes a lot of sense too, if you buy into a game script in which Atlanta grabs an early lead.

Others to Consider

A Matt Ryan-Julio Jones stack is certainly in play given the high implied team total, but with Ryan coming in as the second-most expensive quarterback and Jones as the most-expensive receiver, it's tough to fit them both in. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Ryan has seen a huge boost in production while playing in shootouts (games with at least a 50-point over/under), averaging 342 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns on 39 attempts in 11 games since the beginning of 2014. In five home games with a 50-point over/under, he has averaged 371 yards and 2.4 touchdowns. In those same 11 games, Jones has averaged 8.2 catches for 135 yards, while those numbers have jumped to an absurd 8.2 catches for 155 yards in the five home games with a 50-point over/under. It's not going to be easy to pay up for, but the upside of a Ryan-Jones stack is undeniable.

Game log watchers likely aren't going to be into Tyrell Williams after a 4.3-FanDuel point performance last week. However, Williams drew one of the toughest available matchups last week against the Denver Broncos and will now square off against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the third-most receiving touchdowns. They also rank ninth-worst in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Williams is currently second on the team in targets and easily leads the team in red zone targets -- his nine red zone targets actually ranks fifth in the entire league. Travis Benjamin still isn't practicing this week, and his absence could further boost Williams' outlook, though he could be limited if he draws Desmond Trufant in coverage.