Week 2 Game Scripts to Target in Daily Fantasy Football
New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 53.0
Giants Implied Team Total: 28.75
Saints Implied Team Total: 24.25
To begin, let's look at the game everyone will be talking about this week -- the New York Giants against the New Orleans Saints. This contest boasts the highest over/under on the slate and should be heavily targeted across the industry. Let's take a look at some strong correlation plays and try to figure out who will account for the points in this potential shootout.
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
FanDuel Price: $8,100
If you take a look at our Matchup Heat Map, one of our many useful DFS tools, you'll see that Eli Manning and the Giants get to take on a Saints' defense that easily ranked as the easiest matchup for passing attacks last season. It should be no surprise, then, that New Orleans gave up 373 fantasy points (ESPN standard scoring) to opposing quarterbacks in 2015 -- 59 more points than the next highest defense. This week, they will be without their best pass defender, Delvin Breaux. As a result, the Manning-led Giants are projected to put up 28.75 points, the second-highest implied team total of the slate.
In the six games he has played since 2013 with an over/under above 50, Manning has averaged 24.3 FanDuel points, throwing an average of 45 times for 322 yards. In all other games during that span, Manning has averaged 22.3 FanDuel points, 36 attempts and 263 yards. If this turns into the shootout it is projected to be, it's likely that New York allows Manning to air it out.
Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Price: $7,200
With Breaux out of the lineup, there is nobody who has a chance of slowing down Odell Beckham in this matchup. As we covered last week, a quarterback's top receiver is the most highly correlated play, so Beckham is the obvious pairing with Manning this weekend. Instead, let's examine the player to combine to make an optimal game stack -- Willie Snead.
Raybon has found that the second-most highly correlated player to a successful quarterback performance is the opposing team's number-one receiver, so we should be targeting Brandin Cooks in this spot, right? Well, while Cooks has averaged 82 yards and .7 touchdowns per game at home, he has put up just 53 yards and .3 touchdowns on the road in his career. He will also deal with New York's stingy perimeter corners, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Janoris Jenkins.
Snead lined up in the slot on 70 percent of his snaps last week and could feast on a Giants defense that forces opposing passing attacks to beat them over the middle of the field. Last week's matchup against the Dallas Cowboys provided a perfect example, as Cole Beasley and Jason Witten combined for 26 targets, 17 catches, and 131 yards while Dez Bryant was silent. Drew Brees had no qualms relying heavily on Snead in Week 1, sending a team-high 9 targets his way, which translated to 9 catches for 172 yards, also both team-high marks.
Others to Consider
Game script favors Manning, but Brees is certainly worth a look in tournaments. After a one-catch performance in Week 1, nobody will want to target Coby Fleener, but he could be heavily targeted if the Giants can contain Cooks and Michael Thomas on the outside. If you can stomach rostering Fleener in tournaments, the game script sets up positively for him. New York's run defense was pretty stout last week, and game flow doesn't set up positively for Mark Ingram in this one. If targeting New Orleans, it's probably best to limit it to their passing attack.
The New York passing game will be the popular way to target this game, making Rashad Jennings an interesting play. Game script sets up quite well for him with the Giants favored and possessing an elite team total, and the Saints just made the very inefficient Latavius Murray look pretty good in Week 1.
