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Fantasy Football: 5 Receivers Primed for Bounce-Back Seasons

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Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys

Dez Bryant has long been one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. From 2011 to 2014, his 50 receiving touchdowns were the most in the league, and 7 more than the next-highest receiver in Jordy Nelson.

Heading into the 2015 campaign, Bryant had come off three straight seasons with at least 1,200 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, a feat accomplished by only three other receivers since the merger in 1970. Those receivers? Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Terrell Owens. Yeah, dude was rightly in elite company.

numberFire's signature in-house metric, Net Expected Points (NEP), helps put into context just how good Bryant was from 2011 to 2014, and it makes a positive case for why Bryant should be back in the elite wide receiver conversation for the 2016 season.

NEP takes traditional box score statistics like receiving yards and touchdowns and layers it with additional context based on expected output determined by down-and-distance data from similar historical in-game scenarios.

You see, if a player reels in an 8-yard reception on a 3rd-and-10, it's far less valuable than if he were to make that same play on a 3rd-and-4. One moves the chains, the other likely results in a punt. NEP accounts for that.

When it comes to Bryant's NEP numbers, they're pretty darn good.

SeasonTargetsTarget RankReception NEPReception NEP rankReception NEP per TargetReception NEP per Target Rank
201110429th of 3292.3917th of 320.895th of 32
201213813th of 39110.605th of 390.8011th of 39
20131598th of 37107.9114th of 370.6820th of 37
201413612th of 40127.795th of 400.941st of 40


In 2011, 2012, and 2014, Bryant's Reception NEP rank among all wideouts targeted over 100 times bested that of his rank among those same wideouts in total targets. That means he was doing more with less, so much so that he led the league in Reception NEP per target in 2014.

So, despite an ineffective, injury-plagued 2015 season, Bryant should be back at full health for 2016. In two preseason games he's already caught two touchdown passes, and his longtime quarterback, Tony Romo, is back at the helm.

You likely won't be able to get a discount on Bryant in your fantasy football draft -- his current average draft position (ADP) of 1.08 is identical to his ADP heading into the 2015 season -- but if your draft position is late in the first round, don't hesitate to grab him. Last season was an aberration, and Bryant is set to be back to his old ways.