College Football Daily Fantasy Sleepers for Saturday 10/17/15
Bargain hunting in the DFS universe is often a mix of surveying injury reports, recruiting service ratings and accounting for potential blowouts. The quality of opponents on the collegiate level fluctuate wildly but this isn't limited to just FBS versus FCS matchups.
A case in point this week is Oregon’s trip to Washington. Washington's DFS salaries indicate that Oregon will limit the Huskies offensively. Examining a mix of our internal numberFire metrics and other pertinent statistics, it becomes clear that many of the Huskies players are highly undervalued.
Oregon has surrendered 73 passes this year that have gained at least 10 yards, which places them 125th in the nation in that category. The Ducks have allowed 323.5 yards per game through the air and rank 112th nationally in total defense. Don Pellum, Oregon's defensive coordinator, shouldn't be buying any green bananas this month.
The Huskies' playmakers aren't the only undervalued assets this week, check out the rest of our offerings for Week 7.
Early Slate - Blake Kemp, East Carolina ($6800)
Tulsa's 112th ranked pass defense syncs up perfectly with our internal projections, calling for the Pirates to own the skies to the tune of 310 yards through the air. Blake Kemp has thrown for 325 yards or more in half of his starts in 2015 and that includes a gaudy stat line (333 yards, 3 touchdowns) against the Florida Gators, the nation's premier secondary. Luckily for Kemp owners, there won't be a quick hook against Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane have the offensive firepower to hang around in this one despite the loss of their star wide receiver Keevan Lucas two weeks ago. Kemp isn't a threat in the running game, but at $6800 he has far too much upside to pass up here.
Late Slate - Jake Browning, Washington ($6400)
Browning has been all over the map this season, regularly struggling against quality opponents while posting strong numbers against feeble competition. Based upon the data we have collected, it's more than fair to categorize Oregon as a weak opponent. As mentioned above Oregon’s leaky secondary regularly gives up big plays down the field, and they’ve only intercepted six passes through six games. Our game prediction is calling for more than a few points from the Huskies and 213 yards through the air for Browning. It should be noted that Browning’s best game this season came against a quality pass defense from Utah State. He finished with 368 yards and 3 touchdown passes.
Value Running Backs
Early Slate - Ralph Webb, Vanderbilt ($5300)
As the focal point of the Commodore offense, Webb has received at least 18 touches in each of Vandy’s first five games. It’s rare to get a true bellcow at this price, but his subpar performances against Ole Miss and Georgia have driven down his salary. Now is his time to explode against a South Carolina program reeling from the abrupt departure of Steve Spurrier. We’re calling for Vandy to rush for 163 yards against an FBS opponent. Here’s the big stat, shining in bright neon lights: South Carolina is 105th in run defense, surrendering 208 yards per game on the ground. Webb is also a threat out of the backfield with two receiving touchdowns already on his resume this year.
Late Slate - Myles Gaskin, Washington ($6200)
The freshman appears to have gained the trust of the coaching staff after an impressive game against USC last week in Los Angeles. Gaskin has unseated Dwayne Washington as the starting back for UW after scampering for 134 yards against the Trojans’ serviceable run defense. He won't need to worry about Browning stealing any carries from him in this one. The Huskies’ starting quarterback has carried the ball 21 times all season long for a grand total of negative 27 yards. When Oregon has faced teams committed to running the ball, they’ve been unable to slow them down. Utah ran up 273 on the ground two weeks after Michigan gouged the Ducks for 197 yards in Week 2.
Value Wide Receivers
Early Slate - Calvin Ridley, Alabama ($4500)
This is stealing, plain and simple. Ridley has exploded over the past three weeks, nabbing 18 passes for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s formed a connection with Jake Coker, and that should come in handy this week against the Aggies. Our projections call for 245 passing yards out of the Tide, and you can be sure that Ridley will account for a large chunk of it. Texas A&M has also struggled to stop the run this year, ranking just 85th in the country. That comes into play for Ridley because he’s been dynamic on play-action, including his 81-yard touchdown reception last weekend against Arkansas off a fake to Derrick Henry.
Late Slate - Tim White, Arizona State ($5300)
You’ve seen his name before and you’ll continue to see it until they push his salary north of $6000. He has three touchdowns in his last two games to go along with 12 receptions and 186 yards. Many DFS players will shy away from Sun Devil players facing Utah this week, but the Utes' defense is susceptible to the pass. Our game projection mirrors the season long stats that shine a light on Utah’s leaky pass defense. Utah’s 100th ranked pass defense is allowing 259 yards per game through the air, and we’re predicting ASU will throw for close to 240 yards on Saturday. When you add in his occasional rushing attempts and return opportunities, White is a fantastic value play.
Value Tight End
Early Slate - Mark Andrews, Oklahoma ($3000)
It’s been a boom-or-bust season for Andrews, but with the tight end roster pool as thin as it is, it’s worth a gamble on a big man who can get into the end zone. Nearly half of his receptions this season have gone for a touchdown, and we’re calling for Baker Mayfield to throw for 237 yards at home against K-State. The Wildcats have faced one team this season with a traditional tight end (UTSA), and David Morgan II hauled in 4 receptions for 45 yards.
Late Slate - Joshua Perkins, Washington ($2900)
Another Husky? Why not. Oregon has faced Utah and Michigan State this season, two teams that feature traditional in-line tight ends. Their tight ends combined for 4 receptions, 45 yards and a touchdown. Perkins is inexplicably below $3000 this week despite coming off a 4-catch, 57-yard performance against USC that included a touchdown. Browning loves to check down to Perkins and will again this week against the Ducks.