College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 10/17/15
I don't mean to boast, but to say it was a good week last week would be a severe understatement. Every player recommended last week at least hit value.
The takeaway isn't to tout one good week but rather that trusting a sound process can pan out big time.
So let's see what the numbers -- that process -- say this week.
Our in-house projections will try to help us find success over at FanDuel this week, too. These projections produce team-based statistics based on our algorithms, so this type of approach is logical, as the basic principles of any daily fantasy sport are to target high point projections and teams that are supposed to perform well offensively.
Now that you know that, let's do this thing.
Early Slate - Chad Kelly, Ole Miss ($8,400)
There are many good-to-great quarterback options in the early slate. When that's the case I like to look to exploit a matchup for one of the lower-priced players. Kelly is that guy this week. Ole Miss travels to Memphis to take on the Tigers in what is, with an over/under of 70.0, projected to be a shootout. The Rebels' implied total is hovering around 40 points -- and rightfully so. In matchups with Ole Miss caliber offenses -- Bowling Green and Cincinnati -- Memphis surrendered an average of 581.5 yards and 4 touchdowns through the air. The Rebels have a more balanced offense, so we have them projected for just over 265 passing yards. As we know though Kelly can use his legs too. He has four rushing touchdowns on the year, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him scamper for a score in such a high-scoring affair.
Late Slate - Trevone Boykin, TCU ($10,000)
"I really like the idea of paying up for Boykin this week." Those are the exact words I used last week before Boykin exploded for 44.44 fantasy points in a Heisman-like comeback win over Kansas State. I also said I liked Boykin largely because there weren't any other worthy options in my opinion. This week is no different. Don't get me wrong, there are some signal callers with upside but, against Iowa State, Boykin has a floor as high as their ceilings. Just a week ago, Patrick Mahomes torched the Cyclones for 37.22 fantasy points. We expect Boykin to throw for over 270 yards in a game in which TCU has an implied total of 47 points. If the Cyclones stay close enough, Boykin could put up his best numbers of the year here.
Top Running Backs
Early - Dare Ogunbowale, Wisconsin ($6,800)
You don't need the numbers to know that this is a no-brainer, but they definitely back up the sentiment. Corey Clement has returned to practice but is very unlikely to suit up this Saturday. Taiwan Deal is also questionable for this week's matchup with Purdue with an ankle injury that his limited him throughout the week. Common sense points to Ogunbowale carrying the rock a lot for the Badgers. Numbers point to him carrying it with a lot of success. According to our metrics, Purdue has the eightth-worst rush defense in the country, and we expect Wisconsin to eat the Boilermakers up on the ground to the tune of 225-plus yards. If Deal is in fact ruled out, you'll get great value from Ogunbowale.
Late - Elijah Hood, North Carolina ($5,800)
Is there a handful of top-notch backs on Saturday's late slate of games? You bet. Do I really like any of their matchups? Not really, no. I'm going to try and avoid paying up for a back here in hopes to hit it big with a matchup-friendly play like Elijah Hood. Over the past three weeks, the Tar Heel running back has at least 12 totes and either a touchdown or 100 yards in each game. You should expect even more from him at home against the Demon Deacons. We project North Carolina to rush for over 195 yards on their way to over 400 yards of total offense. Hood should be the main beneficiary of such a great matchup.
Top Wide Receivers
Early - Keyarris Garrett, Tulsa ($6,600) & Isaiah Jones, ECU ($5,900)
You may not be a fan of picking guys outside the top five conferences, but I sure am -- especially this week. Tulsa and East Carolina are facing off in a game with the highest over/under (78.0) of any on the slate so you'd be smart to target players from these two teams whether your're comfortable with it or not. For me, the best two guys to target are each team's top wideouts, for obvious reasons. We project the two teams to combine for nearly 475 yards passing and over 45 first downs. There will be a lot of opportunities to be had.
Due to Keevan Lucas' season-ending injury, Garrett will be the number one guy for the Golden Hurricane. On the season, he's averaging 8.2 catches and 125.6 yards per game despite having just a single score. He's going to produce catches and yards, and a touchdown is likely with a team implied total of nearly 35 points. On the other sideline, Isaiah Jones is the guy. At just $5,900 he's going to be the steal of the day. Not only is he averaging 8 catches and nearly 95 yards per contest but there's more. Vegas sees the Pirates scoring upwards of 45 points, and we see them passing for over 300 yards. You can't go wrong with the one they call Zay.
Late - Josh Doctson, TCU ($8,700) & KaVontae Turpin ($4,900)
Just as I was a week ago, I'm all over the team playing against Iowa State. Last week, the aforementioned Mahomes and Jakeem Grant hooked up for 2 touchdown passes over 35 yards. Mahomes also threw two more touchdowns of at least 35 yards. To say the Cyclones are susceptible to the big play would be an understatement.
The Horned Frogs and their vertical passing game should easily exploit a lackluster Iowa State secondary. Doctson is averaging 17.5 yards per catch and has 10 touchdowns on the year. He leads TCU with 50 catches and has 33 more receptions than the next closest pass catcher. That would be KaVontae Turpin. Two weeks ago against Texas, Turpin went off with 138 yards and 4 touchdowns on 6 catches. With Iowa State's proven vulnerability to the big play, Turpin could be in for another big day with the chance for multiple scores. All systems go on the Horned Frogs!
Top Tight Ends
Early - Rodney Mills, Massachusetts ($3,300)
There's not many, if any, notable early plays at the tight end position. Mills is the Gronk of this group. In a mere two games in 2015, Mills has 11 receptions, 214 yards and 2 touchdowns. He's highly targeted in the Minutemen offense and is only $300 more than the mid-tiered tight ends. He's worth his price this week in a matchup with Kent State. Our model likes UMass to throw for over 275 yards against a Golden Flash team who just gave up 38 points a week ago.
Late - Cam Serigne, Wake Forest ($3,000)
There are a few more relevant tight ends in the nightcap. In terms of usage, I like Cam Serigne. We expect Wake Forest to pass for just 200 yards in their matchup with North Carolina but that's irrelevant here. Serigne has the second most catches (28) and yards (304) on the team and leads the team with 2 touchdowns on year. He's a big part of what the Demon Deacons muster up in their passing game, and they should be doing a lot of that this week against a Tar Heel team that is favored by 17 points at home.