College Football Bowl Betting Guide: Tuesday 12/27/22
After a few days in a row of just a single bowl game, Tuesday offers us four bowl matchups, starting at 12:00 p.m. Eastern.
How can we bet these games (based on college football odds from FanDuel Sportsbook)?
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Buffalo Bulls
Georgia Southern Eagles Moneyline (-184) - 3 stars out of 5
Over 66.5 (-110) - 5 stars out of 5
The model here is loving the Georgia Southern side of the Camellia Bowl, and quarterback Kyle Vantrease will get to face the Buffalo Bulls, for whom he started 25 games before transferring.
Vantrease has led the Eagles to the 35th-ranked offense in the nation by SP+. Buffalo is 79th offensively and 103rd defensively.
That means we're getting two defenses outside the top 100 and the best unit in this game -- by far -- being the Georgia Southern offense.
That helps us trust the model here and like the Georgia Southern moneyline and the over (66.5).
Memphis Tigers vs. Utah State Aggies
Memphis Tigers -7.5 (-110) - 5 stars out of 5
Memphis Tigers Moneyline (-300) - 5 stars out of 5
The model also loves a side in this one: the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis ranks 61st in our power rankings while the Utah State Aggies are just 105th. This is despite identical 6-6 records for these teams.
Utah State ranks 75th in offensive SP+ while Memphis was a top-30 unit this year (27th).
Memphis also holds the better defense, and this is just a spot where the records make this one look closer than it actually should be by the final buzzer.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +7.5 (-110) - 2 stars out of 5
Over 64.5 (-110) - 2 stars out of 5
Despite a 9-3 record, the Chanticleers are 7.5-point underdogs to the 7-5 East Carolina Pirates.
SP+ ranks these two teams very similarly across the board with ECU 51st in offense, 74th in defense, and 127th in special teams. Coastal Carolina is 45th, 88th, and 123rd, respectively.
Indications are that Coast Carolina's stud quarterback, Grayson McCall, will play, and that's enough for a majority of the spread bets and spread money to be on the Chanticleers -- same as what our model likes pertaining to the spread.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Wisconsin Badgers Moneyline (-164) - 3 stars out of 5
Wisconsin -3.5 (-110) - 1 star out of 5
The Wisconsin Badgers will be without starting quarterback (or, former starting quarterback) Graham Mertz due to his transfer, so either redshirt senior Chase Wolf or freshman Myles Burkett will get the start, according to their depth chart and comments by coach Luke Fickell.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys also are losing their long-time starting quarterback, Spencer Sanders, to the transfer portal. Freshman Garret Rangel started two games this season, leading to a 53.6% completion rate and 5.7 yards per attempt on 84 attempts with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
There's a huge pace discrepancy between the two (Wisconsin ranks 117th in plays per game and 114th in pass-to-run ratio while Oklahoma State is second in plays and 27th in pass-to-run ratio).
The Cowboys' defense is only 78th in rush defense by opponent-adjusted rushing yards allowed, so a ground-heavy attack for Wisconsin seems imminent.