College Football Betting Guide: Friday 11/4/22
MACtion is sweet, but we've got Power 5 teams in action again on Friday.
Luckily, our model has thoughts on both games, and there might even be an unexpectedly close game in the Pac-12 on deck.
Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Duke -9.5 (-115) - 2 Stars
Over 47.5 (-110) - 4 Stars
The Blue Devils not only are one win from a bowl berth (5-3 record), but they've also competed well in one-score losses to Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Kansas. They're a solid team led by dual-threat signal-caller Riley Leonard, who leads the team in passing and rushing.
B.C. has a lot of the right pieces to be a good offense, but they're 113th in ESPN's SP+ offensive rankings. Senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec has eight picks -- many in big spots. However, the Eagles' duo of Pat Garwo III at tailback and Zay Flowers outside should be able to make a few plays against Duke's 75th-ranked defense.
Our model does expect Leonard and Duke to cover 59.3% of the time here (against 52.9% implied odds). Plus, our model expects this one to exceed the total 71.2% of the time compared to 52.5% implied odds. Both are quality wagers.
Oregon State +4.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
Over 54.5 (-110) - 2 Stars
The Washington Huskies are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, and they've yet to score fewer than 40 points at Husky Stadium. Our model isn't sure it holds.
First of all, U-Dub hasn't faced a defense at home that's a top-85 school in yards per play allowed. Oregon State, through a difficult schedule, is 60th. They're actually 38th in ESPN's SP+ defensive rankings, too. This is a totally different test.
Plus, the Beavers can keep up on their side of the ball. They're ESPN's 41st-ranked offense in SP+, and quarterback Chance Nolan has put forth a competitive 8.5 yards per attempt. He'll have a pretty good chance against a Huskies defense that's allowed the 12th-most passing yards per attempt (8.7) in FBS.
Our model believes the Beavs will cover 58.5% of the time, but the over is also a fair wager. With Nolan and Michael Penix Jr. projected to trade big plays all night, the model believes this game will see at least 55 total points scored a sizable 59.2% of the time.