NCAAF

College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 10/20/22

Austin Swaim  —  @ASwaim3 Oct 20th, 2022

The only Power 5 clash until we hit Saturday is tonight in Atlanta.

The spread between Virginia and Georgia Tech isn't what anyone would have expected to start the year, but both these teams have surprised us quite a bit.

The Cavaliers, off a 2021 season where they took ACC champion Pitt to the final whistle, have been an absolute disaster at 2-4 overall (and 0-3 in ACC play). Georgia Tech's spirited effort against Clemson in their opener appeared to be a sign of things to come. It's still their only loss in conference play.

With that said, which side do we bet for this one?

Note: All college football odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. Please check numberFire's model to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Virginia Cavaliers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech ML (-146) - 1 Star

Tony Elliott might be a wonderful man, but he's certainly not a friend of quarterbacks.

Last year, DJ Uiagelelei posted an awful 6.0 yards per attempt in 2021 under Elliott, who was the offensive coordinator at Clemson. He's back up to 7.8 with Elliott gone.

Now, Elliott has corrupted Brennan Armstrong after somehow getting this UVA job. Armstrong was fourth in FBS in passing yards in 2021, and he's dropped from 8.9 yards per attempt last year to 6.5 this season. There's almost a theme here.

As a result, the Cavs are a mess. They're 110th in passing yards per play overall, and they're still throwing it at the 19th-highest rate in college football. It's one of the worst offenses to watch in Power 5.

At home in this one, Georgia Tech is 11th in passing yards per play allowed in FBS. The Yellow Jackets defend the pass well, and that's the one pitch Virginia has -- and the Cavs do poorly.

Unless Armstrong somehow throws on the cape, it's hard to see Virginia winning this one. Plus, he didn't do that last week against Louisville's 99th-ranked passing defense (in terms of YPA).

Our model thinks Tech wins 61.5% of the time here against these 59.3% implied odds, and I feel it's even higher than that. I won't be backing Elliott's Cavaliers until they've shown to be effective over a sustained period.