College Football Betting Guide: Friday 9/16/22

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Florida State (-2.5) at Louisville

Louisville Spread (+2.5): 4 Stars out of 5
Louisville Moneyline (+118): 3 Stars out of 5

We've got a tight game on tap to open Friday night's action with the Florida State Seminoles setting up as 2.5-point road favorites against the Louisville Cardinals.

Florida State is off to a 2-0 start after handling Duquesne 47-7 in their opener and then besting LSU 24-23 thanks to a blocked extra point attempt.

Louisville bounced back after a 31-7 loss in their opening game against Syracuse to beat Central Florida 20-14 a week ago on Friday night behind a big game from quarterback Malik Cunningham. Cunningham generated 7.7 rushing predicted points added (PPA) and 6.2 passing PPA. Louisville is now 57th in the consensus rankings at Massey Ratings.

Florida State ranks 43rd in those consensus ranks and 35th in SP+ (where Louisville ranks 55th).

numberFire's model is siding with the home team here both outright (+118) and while getting 2.5 points.

Since 2018, home underdogs of 2.0 to 3.0 points are 69-71 outright and 73-64 against the spread.

Air Force (-16.5) at Wyoming

Over 46.5 (-112): 5 Stars out of 5
Air Force Moneyline (-720): 3 Stars out of 5

Another road favorite awaits in the nightcap, only this is a much larger spread. The Air Force Falcons are 16.5-point favorites at the Wyoming Cowboys. They were 14.5-point favorites earlier in the week.

Air Force is 2-0 to start the season and topped 40 points in each game while holding opponents to fewer than 20 in each, as well. Those resulted in a 48-17 win over Northern Iowa and then a 41-10 win over Colorado.

As for Wyoming, they're 2-1. They were decimated 38-6 by Illinois in Week 0, they beat Tulsa in double-overtime, and they bested Northern Colorado 33-10 a week ago.

The consensus rankings at Massey have Air Force 35th and Wyoming just barely inside the top 100 and 99th in the nation. The large spread is warranted, but some trends -- in addition to our model at numberFire -- like Air Force and the over.

Notably, games with a total of 45.5 to 47.5 since 2018 are 128-110-1 on the over. Also, road teams in that span favored by 16.0 to 17.0 are 36-1 outright and an astounding 27-8 against the spread.