College Football Betting Guide: National Championship (Alabama vs. Georgia)
Nick Saban is looking for his seventh championship with the Crimson Tide, while Kirby Smart is looking for his first with the Bulldogs. Georgia hopes to avenge some of the recent losses to Alabama that ended their season short of a title. The Bulldogs lost to the Tide in the CFP National Championship Game in 2018 after leading 13-0 at halftime, and they lost again later that year in the SEC Championship with Alabama coming from behind once again; this time Georgia led 28-14. The Tide also topped the Dogs, 41-24, in this season's SEC title game.
Alabama has cemented themselves as the greatest college football program of all time in the Saban era, while Georgia hired former Alabama assistant Kirby Smart to bring back the glory days from the early 1980s under coach Vince Dooley. All year, it seemed like this season was Georgia’s year until they were dismantled in the SEC Championship by Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young. Not surprisingly, the Bulldogs led 10-0 early in the second quarter before Young threw for three touchdowns and ran one in for another.
From a betting perspective, our model doesn’t see too much value on the spread, so we’ll focus on the over in what should be a thrilling title game between two of the best programs in the nation.
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110-spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
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Over 52.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Nick Saban said it himself after last season’s win over Georgia: “Good defense doesn’t beat good offense anymore.” Both of these teams vying for a national title have great offenses and great defenses. According to ESPN’s SP+, Alabama and Georgia have the second- and third-ranked offenses in the country.
The Crimson Tide have this year’s Heisman winner at quarterback in Bryce Young, who is throwing to arguably the best receiver prospect in the upcoming NFL Draft in Jameson Williams. Williams may not even be the first Alabama offensive player selected, though. Tackle Evan Neal was a consensus All-American and is arguably the best offensive lineman prospect in this year’s draft.
Georgia doesn’t have the same level of pedigree as the Tide do at quarterback. Stetson Bennett is a former walk-on who was second-string behind J.T. Daniels at the beginning of the season. Luckily for Bennett, the Bulldogs also employ the best tight end in the country, Brock Bowers, who is a nightmare matchup for any team. Bowers led Georgia with five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown in the Orange Bowl against Michigan. In the SEC Championship loss, he had 139 yards and a touchdown against Alabama.
Both teams have several defensive game-breakers, such as Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean for Georgia and Will Anderson Jr. for Alabama. That likely won’t be enough to contain either team’s elite offense. Georgia might seem overmatched with Alabama having the Heisman winner and one of the country’s best offensive weapons, but their offensive line is amongst the best in the country. The Bulldogs rank 11th in average line yards and 7th in sack rate, per Football Outsiders, and two Georgia linemen were selected to the All-SEC second team: Jamaree Salyer and Justin Shaffer.
It’s safe to say that fans can expect another high-scoring affair with Georgia as the slight favorite, even though they’re the historical underdog in this matchup given recent results. Our model gives this game a 61.4% chance to go over 52.5 points. All that’s left now is for these juggernauts to deliver.