College Football Betting Guide: Saturday 12/18/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Fresno State vs UTEP
Fresno State (-11.5): 4 Stars out of 5
Texas-El Paso got off to a 6-1 start this season, but they faded as the year went on, going only 1-4 in their last 5 games. UTEP was not competitive against the two best teams on their schedule, losing 54-13 to Boise State and losing 44-23 to Texas-San Antonio, so they have not risen to the challenge against better competition so far this season.
Fresno State had a very good year at 9-3 with their only losses coming to Oregon, Hawaii, and Boise State. Fresno also defeated UCLA and San Diego State who were both ranked at the time of those victories. Fresno comes into the bowl game on a good run of positive momentum; they have won by a combined score of 74-16 the last two weeks.
Our model gives Fresno a 67.66% chance to cover the betting spread, making this a four-star bet.
Eastern Michigan vs Liberty
Liberty (-9.5): 5 Stars out of 5
Liberty and Eastern Michigan both finished at 7-5 this season, but Eastern Michigan benefitted from a much easier schedule than the Flames did. Eastern Michigan got wins against St. Francis (FCS), Massachusetts (1-11), and Texas State (4-8) in their non-conference slate and followed it up with a 4-4 MAC record.
Eastern Michigan won three games against bowl teams this season compared to four for Liberty. Liberty also dominated in many of their wins; they won by 24 or more in 5 of their 7 victories. Eastern Michigan has won by 24 or more only twice this season, and 2 of their wins came by 3 points or less.
Our model gives Liberty a 71.51% chance to cover the 9.5-point spread, and we like this as a five-star bet for Saturday.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Marshall
Over 55: 4 Stars out of 5
Louisiana-Lafayette started the year with a 38-18 loss to Texas, but they’ve since followed it up with 12 straight victories, and they look to make it 13 with another win over Marshall in the New Orleans Bowl on Saturday.
Both teams are very strong offensively. Louisiana averages 30.69 points per game compared to 34 points per game for Marshall. Our model projects both teams to be around their season average with Louisiana winning 33.99-27.32 as a projected score -- for a total of 61.31 points.
Our model projects a 67.47% chance of the over cashing here -- good for a four-star bet.
