College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/25/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Fresno State (-7.5): 3 Stars out of 5
Fresno State is having a strong start to their season with an 8-3 record and impressive wins on the road against the UCLA Bruins and San Diego State. Two of Fresno’s losses have come by one score, and six of their eight wins have come by more than 7.5 points.
San Jose State is fighting for bowl eligibility at 5-6. The Spartans are 4-6 against FBS opponents, and all four of their wins came by seven points or less. They have been far from dominant in their wins, and they have 4 losses by 18 points or more, so they may not be quite as good as their record indicates.
Our model projects a 35.10-21.49 Bulldogs victory, and we give them a 62.31% chance to cover the betting line. We have this as a three-star bet for Fresno.
Ole Miss (+1.5): 2 Stars out of 5
Mississippi is 9-2 this season and they are currently ranked 8th in the AP Poll. The Rebels' only losses came against Alabama and Auburn this season, and seven of their nine victories have been by 10-plus. Lane Kiffin’s team is currently on a three-game winning streak, including an impressive 29-19 win against a Texas A&M team that was ranked 11th at the time.
Mississippi State is 7-4 and having a good season after a slow start. The Bulldogs squeaked out a one-point victory the first week against Louisiana Tech and lost disappointing games against Memphis and Louisiana State. Mississippi State does have wins against Texas A&M, Auburn, and Kentucky, so they are a quality team when they play their best, but they have been much less consistent than Ole Miss.
State has been better against teams that can run. They're eight in the country in rushing yards per game allowed (102.5). Forcing the ball into Matt Corral's hands is not a terrible recipe for the Rebels.
Our model gives Ole Miss a 60.49% chance to cover the spread, making this a two-star bet for Thursday.