College Football Market Share Report: Friday of Week 13
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
You may need it more than ever, too.
FanDuel has split main slates as FBS college football divides its Week 13 -- many of them rivalry games -- into two days every Thanksgiving weekend. This weekend, more irregular teams have found their way onto the Friday and Saturday main slates. Players that end up in the perfect lineups may be players you've never heard of. Yet.
With that in mind, this edition will take a peek at Friday's 14-game slate. Let's ride.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
|Jayden de Laura||WSU||23.0||31.1||8.06||2.3||15.7|
I'm going to start with the obvious spot -- Ben Bryant ($8,400) of the Eastern Michigan Eagles. Of course, that's tongue-in-cheek, but Bryant doesn't fly off the data table as he should. The coaching staff trusts him a decent amount (30.6 attempts per game), which is more than enough in this spot against Central Michigan. The Chippewas allow 291.9 passing yards per game (125th of 130 FBS schools), and Bryant should get enough chances to rip them apart. His 20.5 rushing yards per game also present at least the remote possibility of a rushing score.
Another value option is Mikey Keene ($7,200) of Central Florida. UCF's freshman signal-caller has had an up-and-down year, but he tossed 30 attempts last week, and even the under would likely suffice in this spot. The South Florida Bulls are 116th in the country against the pass (281.0 yards per game), and Keene has a crystal-clear stacking partner in the form of Ryan O'Keefe ($8,600). O'Keefe has seen at least eight targets each of the past seven games.
With the AAC championship looming for Cincinnati, there is at least enough potential for a trap game for Desmond Ridder ($11,000) to a point where I'm looking elsewhere. Ridder only threw 21 passes (albeit good ones) last weekend against Southern Methodist, and East Carolina is 29th in the nation in passing yards per game (206.8). In turn, ECU is 81st against the rush, and as 14.5-point favorites, it might be Jerome Ford ($9,700) grabbing a bulk of the work this week.
|Lew Nichols III||CMU||32.0||24.4||70.3%||2||11.9%|
|Calvin Tyler Jr.||UTST||18.0||15.8||34.4%||2||3.9%|
|Ricky Person Jr.||NCST||12.0||11.4||40.6%||1||8.9%|
My attention at a grand look at the board actually went to the bottom. It was strange to see Deuce Vaughn ($10,000) with such a light afternoon of work on the ground, but Kansas State trailed Baylor a majority of the afternoon. Vaughn actually pulled in six targets in lieu of the rushing work, so his role is totally fine entering this weekend's showdown with Texas. The Longhorns are allowing 200.5 rushing yards per game (108th in FBS), so Vaughn should have room to operate with the talent we know is present.
This is my first chance to discuss Lew Nichols III ($11,200) on the main slate as well. Nichols arguably has the heaviest workload in college football. He's averaged north of 24.4 carries per game for Central Michigan, which has amounted to 70.3% of their overall ground work. He's a near must in any DFS format on any slate because of the security, but especially this weekend against EMU. The Eagles are allowing 202.2 rushing yards per game -- just 109th in the country. Bryant and Nichols are a tremendous, correlated stack in that MAC battle.
As a value consideration (which is hard with so many tremendous high-salaried backs), Washington State's Max Borghi ($7,600) definitely works. At 198.8 rushing yards per game allowed, the Huskies are the 106th-best rushing defense in the nation. Borghi faced lopsided game scripts against Oregon and Arizona State, but his last three contests with a fairly neutral one were tremendous. He saw at least 16 carries and averaged 6.1 yards per carry in them.
|Giovanni Fauolo Sr.||UNLV||6.0||18.2%||4.1||10.0%||6.6%|
|Jimmy Horn Jr.||USF||6.0||18.2%||4.3||14.8%||17.0%|
I spend at running back and quarterback more often than not, and that often leaves me looking for value at wideout. A top-tier running back listed as a wideout will suffice. Two weeks ago, Air Force figured out their best player should get the ball. De'Andre Hughes ($6,500) is a listed wideout, but after breaking the century mark in Week 11 on just eight carries, Hughes got 22 carries as the Falcons' tailback last Friday. He predictably smashed with 221 rushing yards and a pair of scores. Hughes should be the top back again given the absurd performance, and he's close to a 100% guy in tournaments, personally.
Two weeks ago in the report, I was concerned about Xavier Worthy ($9,200) losing work to Joshua Moore ($4,000). Worthy has ascended to 36 total targets in just the past two weeks, and Moore hasn't seen one in that span. It doesn't particularly make sense given that Moore's target share was higher three weeks ago, but I think Steve Sarkisian is receiving enough heat from others to move on. Either way, Worthy's volume is unmatched as a wideout on this slate, and while the ball carriers are a top priority, he's the most sensible pivot to spending at receiver.
Both Xavier Hutchinson ($8,200) and Charlie Kolar ($7,600) are viable targets as value options drifting downward for Iowa State. ISU draws the struggling TCU defense, and their passing game is so tremendously concentrated that it's easy to find the right spots to attack the 97th-ranked pass defense (253.9 yards allowed) in the country. Hutchinson (28) and Kolar (36) have had 50.4% of Iowa State's total 127 targets the past three weeks. Hutchinson (28.3% of the team's total yards this season) has more vertical upside, but Kolar has seen at least 11 targets each of the past three weeks with safer volume.