College Football Market Share Report: Week 10
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
Welcome to the main slate, Malik Willis ($10,200). The Liberty quarterback and top NFL Draft prospect draws the struggling Mississippi secondary this weekend. His 27 pass attempts last week don't jump right off the page, but his 96.2 rushing yards per game do. Albeit against terrible opponents, Willis has eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in every game this season. The Ole Miss defense is allowing 437.6 total yards per game -- 98th in the country. This may be a step up in overall competition, but Willis is worth a look in a game very crucial to his draft stock.
Punting this week, Dylan Morris ($6,200) is hard to turn down. He only offered 25 attempts last week, but that was actually a fairly low mark for his 2021 campaign. Morris has exceeded 30 attempts four times this season, and he'll likely have to throw plenty as Washington is a 6.5-point underdog to Oregon at home. The Ducks are pretty poor against the pass. They're allowing 279.7 passing yards per game, which is the seventh-worst mark amongst all Power 5 schools.
numberFire's model has the Arkansas Razorbacks' projected team total at 36.87 against Mississippi State on Saturday. That is well ahead of their 30-point implied team total in the contest. With that the case, it's more than appropriate to like KJ Jefferson ($9,200) and Will Rogers ($9,100) in their respective game scripts. Jefferson is averaging 60.6 yards on the ground and could play with a lead, and Rogers is averaging an absurd 54.5 pass attempts per game in Mike Leach's system, so he will be comfortable trailing.
|Kenneth Walker III||MSU||22||21.8||63.0%||3||4.0%|
|Henry Parrish Jr.||MISS||12||10.8||27.0%||1||8.1%|
This is a volume report, but don't fall in love with Tyler Badie ($7,500) just on volume. The Georgia defense is allowing just 76.4 rushing yards per game, which is second in the country to only Wisconsin. With a split backfield on the Bulldogs' side, this game might just be a cross-off entirely.
However, the dreamy workload of Breece Hall ($10,700) is back on the table this weekend. Hall is averaging 22.3 carries per game, and he's essentially unopposed in the Cyclones backfield (74.8% rush share on the season). He's got a 13.0% target share as well, which is third on the team. Texas is ranked 110th in the country against the rush (206.9 rushing yards per game), and almost all of that opportunity belongs to Hall. He is the cornerstone building block of the slate personally.
I'm more concerned than I expected to load up on Travis Dye ($9,800) against Washington's 94th-ranked rush defense. Dye was presumed to have the backfield all to himself after CJ Verdell was injured several weeks ago, but he only saw 13 of 21 carries last weekend against Colorado. That could have just been because of the lop-sided score; Dye saw an 88% rush share two weeks ago. It's still worth getting to -- now especially with Oregon needing to try significantly to widen scores moving forward to make the College Football Playoff.
|Winston Wright Jr.||WVU||8||18.6%||7.1||22.0%||23.4%|
The wideout I deployed most often last weekend was Xavier Worthy ($8,000) of Texas. To my frustration, more of the volume went to sophomore Joshua Moore ($6,500) instead. Moore is definitively the top option for the Longhorns despite what the salaries may indicate. Moore has at least a 27.0% target share in four straight games. Iowa State has been brutal against the pass (184.6 passing yards allowed per game; 13th-best in the nation), but Moore's volume is too solid to ignore. Until that changes, Worthy seems over-salaried.
Baylor was not kind, either. Ty'Quan Thornton ($7,700) entered leading the Bears in targets this season, but they turned back to RJ Sneed ($7,400) this past Saturday. Sneed saw 11 targets to just a respectable 8 for Thornton. With the salary increase for Sneed after the monster game, this passing attack is harder to stack than one would hope, but it could be fruitful to guess correctly. Texas Christian is just 99th in passing yards per game allowed to opponents (262.1) and just fired head coach Gary Patterson this week.
On a brighter note, this is the first workable matchup for Wan'Dale Robinson ($8,500) in quite some time. Honestly, Robinson is under-salaried just because Kentucky drew Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana State in three weeks before exiting the main slate in Week 9. Now back, they have a pristine contest for Robinson against Tennessee. The Vols are ranked 101st against the pass (264.4 passing yards per game allowed), and Robinson's dominant volume is absurd. He has a 41.0% target share this year.