NCAAF

College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 11/4/21

Tom Sokol Nov 3rd, 2021
The Lousiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns are ranked and eyeing an eighth straight win, but how should we bet their game on Thursday?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Georgia State vs Louisiana-Lafayette

Lousiana-Lafayette -12.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Over 54.5: 2 Stars out of 5

Louisiana-Lafayette destroyed Texas State 45-0 last week as the latest gem on a seven-game winning streak. The Ragin Cajuns moved to #24 in the latest AP Poll, as their only loss on the season has come week one on the road against Texas. ULL is 5-0 in conference games, and they are a good offensive team averaging 32 points per game on the season.

Georgia State is 4-4 on the year, 3-1 in the conference. The Panthers are averaging 30.12 points allowed per game, so ULL should expect to put up at least 30 points. Our model projects ULL to win 38.23-19.38.

We give ULL a 68.98% likelihood to cover the spread; that makes for a four-star betting opportunity. We also give a 60.63% likelihood of the over cashing -- making that a two-star betting option as well.