College Football Betting Guide: Friday 10/22/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
UCONN +15.5: 5 Stars out of 5
Connecticut finally broke their losing streak with a 21-15 win over Yale last week, as they have continued to play better since the departure of former head coach Randy Edsall. Prior to Yale, the Huskies lost their last three games by a combined total of 19 points.
Middle Tennessee State is having a mediocre season at 2-4, and their only FBS win came when they sneaked past Marshall by six points. Our model like the Blue Raiders to win the game outright (73.3%), but there is little reason to believe they will win by more than two touchdowns.
Our model gives UCONN a 72.85% chance to cover the spread of 15.5 points, making this a five-star betting opportunity.
Over 62.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Central Florida is 3-3 to start the season, and their offense has been the catalyst in most of their victories. The Knights are averaging 34.16 points per game and allowing 32.17 points per game. Five of their six games have gone over the 62.5-point projected total on Friday, so they have played a lot of high scoring contests.
Memphis is averaging 35.86 points per game and allowing 30.43 points per game. Three of their seven games have gone over the 62.5 point total.
Our model projects a high scoring contest with UCF by a projected score of 37.89 to 31.57. The total is what we're monitoring here though, as the over has a 68.55% chance of hitting, making this a four-star bet.
Colorado State -168: 2 Stars out of 5
Colorado State is now 3-3 on the season, and they have been playing better and better each week. The Rams started 0-2, but they are 3-1 in their last four games. Their only loss came by ten points against Iowa -- a strong team (11th in the AP Poll).
In their last four games, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6, lost to Iowa 24-14, beat San Jose State 32-14, and then beat New Mexico 36-7. They have been rolling, and on the flip side, Utah State is struggling a bit recently after a 3-0 start. The Aggies lost to Boise State and Brigham Young and then squeaked out a four-point win against winless UNLV last weekend.
Our model likes Colorado State to win outright (a 66.6% chance to do so), so in turn, it is easy to like the Rams moneyline as a two-star bet.