College Football Market Share Report: Week 7
Since many of the 2018 law changes that marked the return of college football daily fantasy, it has been quickly growing. After all, more individuals watched the 2020 National Championship Game than any other non-NFL sporting event.
With so many eyeballs on the games, and some monster statistics put up by the elite players in the sport, it is natural for many to gravitate to playing daily fantasy instead of traditional betting. FanDuel offers college football contests each weekend, which can include Thursday, Friday, and Saturday main slates -- depending on game volume.
College football is a unique challenge for DFS, as a lot of necessary information is not easily found. Often, injury news is reported through the schools themselves and newspaper beat reporters. It can also be particularly difficult to find accurate information on which players are on the field, who has the best usage, and where inefficiencies in the salary cap model may reside.
The latter point is the premise for this piece, which in addition to numberFire's betting guides and daily fantasy helpers, is designed to help you find out which college football players are on the field and seeing work.
With that in mind, let's examine the market shares for players on Saturday's main slate on FanDuel.
Note: Players with fewer than 10 pass attempts, 10 rushing attempts, and 5 targets in the previous week will not be featured but may still be viable in daily fantasy formats. For players returning from off weeks, previous reports will contain their most recent sample. All stats are from PFF.com.
Matt Corral ($12,000) has a hefty salary coming off a game in which he was wildly productive, yet only attempted 21 passes. A shift toward the running game -- without a featured back -- really hurts the potential of his Mississippi offense. His game is solid with an 82.5-point total and tight spread against Tennessee, but Ole Miss may continue to shift toward the running game to help their awful defense that is surrendering 5.57 yards per play.
It is not often that Alabama has to throw the ball from behind, so perhaps there is less value in Bryce Young ($10,400) throwing 48 times against Texas A&M than another passer. Young continues to add virtually nothing on the ground (0.3 rushes per game), which makes it tough to find his lofty salary in a lineup as 16.5-point favorites against Mississippi State.
This slate is heavy on SEC matchups with great defenses at play, but Brigham Young's Jarren Hall ($8,000) faces no such concerns against Baylor. Their 32nd-ranked defense is inflated by starting the year with two FCS teams and Kansas, but the defensive woes that plagued them in 2020 likely still exist; they surrendered 20 or more points to their last three conference opponents. Hall's workload is amongst the best dual-threat ones on the slate, as he is flinging it over 30 times a game and has added 45.5 yards per game on the ground.
|Brian Robinson Jr.||ALA||23||19.2||49.5%||4||4.8%|
|Henry Parrish Jr.||MISS||18||10.8||27.0%||1||7.4%|
|Chris Rodriguez Jr.||UK||16||20.0||58.3%||1||5.9%|
It is no secret that surprise playoff contender Iowa works behind Tyler Goodson ($8,700). Goodson posted the highest Week 6 carry total (25) of any running back on the slate, and surprisingly, he added two targets as well -- good enough for an 11% target share in the run-happy Hawkeye offense. That workload is elite for his salary, and he draws a Purdue team that is ranked 46th against the rush in FBS, but that may be skewed by weaker opponents, as they ceded 7.58 yards per carry to Notre Dame's Kyren Williams.
James Conner is not the only "Conner" stealing red-zone touches at the moment in American football. Snoop Conner ($8,300) saw a huge salary increase off a monstrous, three-tuddie game against Arkansas. However, Conner still just saw 12 carries compared to Henry Parrish Jr. ($6,900) and his 18-carry total. It is worth noting that Conner -- a bigger back -- is likely Mississippi's goal-line back, but the odds that he outlasts Corral, Parrish Jr., and others for a majority of scores is unlikely again. Jerrion Ealy ($7,000) may return Saturday as well. There are several paths to failure in this crowded backfield.
Zach Evans ($9,500) is not only questionable for Saturday's date with Oklahoma, but his workload continues to not match his salary in friendly matchups. He has just a 38.5% rush share -- the 14th-worst mark amongst qualifiers on the slate -- at a premium salary. Kendre Miller ($6,300) saw 12 carries in an exclusively positive game script against Texas Tech, but his 17.7% rush share is not exactly enticing, either. We want to attack a Sooners' defense that Bijan Robinson ($11,200) destroyed last week, but unless Evans is out, there may not be a sensible path to do so.
|John Metchie III||ALA||12||27.3%||7.5||23.8%||19.5%|
|Velus Jones Jr.||TENN||7||31.8%||4.8||18.7%||25.8%|
|Michael Young Jr.||CIN||5||16.1%||4.6||16.0%||12.7%|
|Brian Thomas Jr.||LSU||5||13.5%||3.3||9.4%||10.6%|
|Michael Woods II||OU||5||13.5%||5.0||14.6%||12.9%|
It is starting to feel like Josh Downs ($10,500) is just a free square worth getting to. Downs saw 15 of 30 North Carolina targets in Saturday's loss to Florida State, and that negative script allowed him to go bananas with 121 yards and a score. Downs' game script may not be as solid as 7.5-point favorites over Miami (FL), but numberFire's model thinks the Hurricanes can keep it close. If Downs can get a full day's work against the Miami pass defense (94th in passing yards per game allowed), it should be another monster day.
Because his production was not wild, John Metchie III ($7,600) is under-salaried again. He tied for the lead in Alabama targets last week (12), but he also continues to pace the Crimson Tide in overall target share (23.8%). Metchie's pair of scores on a whopping 45 targets this year still indicates regression is coming in an efficient Alabama offense that holds a massive 42.5 projected total.
Xavier Worthy ($8,800) should command a massive workload for Texas now that Jordan Whittington is out with a broken collarbone. Worthy had a team-high 10 targets against Oklahoma, and the Longhorns were also trying to sit on their large lead a majority of the afternoon. Worthy's talent was evident in Week 6 with an insane 26.1 yards per target that included two deep touchdown catches. Without Wittington, he is the clear top option in a game that should be fun for daily fantasy. Texas is a 5.5-point favorite over Oklahoma State in the contest with a healthy, 60.5-point total. It makes it easier to roster Worthy knowing Jaylen Warren ($10,000) has a heavy workload to easily stack with from the Pokes' side.