College Football Betting Guide: Thursday 9/16/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model. All advanced statistics are courtesy of the S&P individual team statistical profiles, except where noted.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 57.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Ohio +20.5: 3 Stars out of 5
The game total of 57.5 seems quite high for this game, as Louisiana-Lafayette and Ohio have both struggled offensively this season. Ohio is only averaging 17.5 points per game two games into the season and that includes a 26-point performance against FCS opponent Duquesne last week.
Louisiana-Lafayette has not been much better on offense, averaging only 22.5 points per game, including a 27 point performance against FCS opponent Nichols.
Neither team has had any of their games go over a game total of 56 points and the average game total from the four games these teams have played so far this season is only 49.5.
Neither team has performed particularly well so far this season and the spread of 20.5 seems excessive. Our model likes Louisiana to win 32.90-19.35 and gives them an 87% chance to win the game outright. Our model is only a 13.55 point difference in favor of Louisiana and it is 5.25 points below the game total.
We project a 65.25% chance that Ohio covers the spread of 20.5 and we give a 62.37% chance of under 57.5 total points, so we like both as 3-star bets.